Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 220821
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
321 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

A summer-like weather pattern is expected the next several days,
characteristic of above normal temperatures, increasing
dewpoints/humidity, weak flow aloft and relatively weak forcing.
Consequently, periodic thunderstorm predictability is poor the
next several days. Additionally, widespread severe weather
episodes are unlikely given the relatively weak flow and forcing.

Early this morning...Patchy fog is possible across southeast
Kansas, in closest proximity to departing surface high. Widespread
dense fog is unlikely, but patchy dense fog is definitely
possible, especially for sheltered and/or low-lying areas.

Subtle pieces of shortwave energy ejecting northeast out of a
western CONUS longwave trough will give way to off-and-on storm
chances the next several days, starting Wednesday. Given weak flow
aloft and weak forcing, timing and coverage of storms will likely
be modulated by convective outflows and other mesoscale
features...features the models struggle to predict accurately.
Consequently, predicting the timing and coverage of these storms
will likely be relatively poor, which is typical of these summer-
like patterns. For now ran with relatively low 20 PoPs throughout
the forecast to account for this low predictability.

Increasing atmospheric thickness will support continued above
normal temperatures in the 80s to low 90s the next several days.
Furthermore, increasing low-level moisture will support increasing
humidity levels as well.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Per GFS and ECMWF, weak mid/upper troughing will be slow to exit
Mid- America, so held onto periodic low PoPs through the weekend
and into early next week. Otherwise, above normal temperatures
look to continue, as atmospheric thickness remains above normal
per GFS and ECMWF ensemble means.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

While some patchy MVFR fog vsbys are possible late tonight,
mainly across southeast Kansas, VFR conditions should be the rule
across the area through Tuesday evening with the return of a
modest south wind.

KED

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

After one of the coldest Aprils on record, the region is
experiencing one of its warmest Mays on record, with month-to-
date average temperature anomalies 7-10+ degrees above normal. Per
medium range model output and outlooks issued by the Climate
Prediction Center, there is high likelihood above normal
temperatures will continue through month`s end, and even into the
first week or two of June.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    88  66  89  67 /   0   0  10  10
Hutchinson      88  66  88  67 /   0   0  10  10
Newton          87  65  88  66 /   0   0  20  10
ElDorado        86  65  86  66 /   0   0  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   87  66  87  67 /   0   0  20  10
Russell         89  67  89  66 /  10  10  10  20
Great Bend      89  66  88  67 /  10  10  10  20
Salina          90  67  90  68 /  10   0  10  10
McPherson       89  66  89  67 /   0   0  10  10
Coffeyville     87  66  87  66 /   0   0  20  10
Chanute         86  64  87  66 /   0   0  20  10
Iola            86  65  87  66 /   0   0  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    87  66  87  66 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...KED
CLIMATE...ADK



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