Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
000
FXUS63 KICT 162327
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
627 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

A gradual return to SE and southerly flow is expected tonight, with
overnight lows expected to be closer to seasonal averages.

A warm front will surge north late tonight or early Tue, which will
lead to temps climbing well above normal for Tue afternoon.  As the
warm front pushes north, a low pressure area is expected to develop
over SW KS, with a dry line expected to push east possibly into
south central KS by Tue aftn.  Not alot of moisture to work with as
this dryline pushes east, with an warm elevated mixed layer keeping
any chance of showers or storms near zero. Position of the dryline
will still be critical for some fire weather concerns on Tue
afternoon, because if the dry line can push east into south central
KS, dry air behind the front may lead to some elevated fire weather
concerns. (see the fire weather section below).  For now, most
grassland fire danger values stay in the very high category, so do
not plan on any fire weather headlines.

A cold front is expected to push SE across the forecast area for Tue
evening, with gusty NW winds in the western side of the front.
Convergence near the triple point of the cold front/warm front may
lead to some showers across north central KS, but think most of the
this activity will stay north of I-70 and north of the forecast
area. The main concern with the front may be gusty winds of 35-45
mph, which may lead a wind advisory for portions of central KS for
Tue evening/night.

Dry weather and seasonal temps can be expected for Wed-Thu, as the
mid level ridge passes over the area.  This will lead to nice
downslope flow, with temps closer to normal.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

The next storm system looks to move into the plains from the Rockies
for late Fri-Sun, bringing a chance for widespread precipitation to
the area by Sat. There is surprisingly good agreement between the
ECMWF and GEFS ensemble members with this system, with an upper low
expected to move east across OK on Sat, with a some sort of inverted
trof moving across srn KS. Abundant moisture will funnel north ahead
of this system, with most ensembles suggesting 1 to possibly 2
inches of soaking rainfall for most of the forecast area. Plan on
keeping pops fairly high given the model agreement and increasing
confidence. Stay tuned. This certainly looks like one of the better
rain chances this spring.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

VFR conditions will prevail for central and southern Kansas during
the next 24hrs, as southeast winds persist across the region. A
warm front will push northward during the day on Tuesday with
winds veering out a bit during the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Breezy south winds and relative humidity values in the mid
and upper 20s will create a very high to possibly extreme grassland
fire danger across much of central and south central KS on Tue.
There is the potential for some drier air to push into south central
KS for Tue afternoon, which may push a few counties SW of ICT into
the extreme category. For now, the grassland fire danger will stay
in the very high category.

A cold front will bring gusty northwest winds on Wed and although
temperatures will only rise into the 60s, a very high grassland fire
danger is expected once again with minimum relative humidities
falling into the low to mid 20s.

An approaching storm system will bring increasing chances for more
widespread precipitation and decreasing fire weather concerns late
in the week and into the weekend.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    42  81  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      38  80  44  67 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          40  78  44  67 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        42  79  46  68 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   44  83  48  70 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         36  75  40  66 /   0   0  10   0
Great Bend      38  78  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          37  75  43  67 /   0   0  10   0
McPherson       39  78  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     41  78  50  70 /   0   0  10   0
Chanute         39  76  48  68 /   0   0  10  10
Iola            39  75  48  68 /   0   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    41  77  49  69 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.