Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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974
FXUS63 KICT 181947
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
247 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Potential for a nocturnal severe event looms for central Kansas.
Moist upslope flow across western Kansas late this afternoon and
diurnal heating will yield MLCAPE values around 2500 j/kg in the
presence of 35-40 kts of deep layer shear. Convergence along the
W-E oriented boundary/pseudo warm front should focus deep moist
convection in the 22z-00z time frame. This activity should evolve
upscale through the evening, aided by the strengthening low level
jet, as it moves east-northeast toward central Kansas. Despite
the modest southwest flow aloft, the storm-relative inflow and
reservoir of unstable air across central Kansas overnight should
support storm maintenance within an environment supportive of
cold pool development/bowing line segments moving across the
area. Convection originating further south over the Texas
panhandle could also affect southern Kansas overnight. While
marginal severe hail is likely, the main risk overnight should
evolve into a strong/damaging wind scenario, though perhaps
weakening a bit as it moves east of the Kansas turnpike late in
the night.

As the main upper trof begins to lift out across the central Plains
on Saturday winds aloft and deep layer shear will increase a bit
along and ahead of the effective surface cold front. While tonights
convection/mesoscale influences will have some affect on the
boundary placement, general model consensus places it along or just
west of the Kansas turnpike during peak late afternoon heating. So
expect another round of strong to severe convection Saturday evening
with all modes of severe weather possible. The upper trof will lift
slowly northeast of the area by later Sunday with a weakening
frontal boundary possibly lingering across far southeast Kansas
for remote chances for convection there.

While the airmass will remain unstable on Monday with weak return
southerly flow, the lack of forcing and weak focus will limit
chances to slight/isolated.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Another upper low over California early next week will lift north
across the Great Basin. Weak flow aloft downstream across Kansas and
an unstable southerly low level flow will limit chances for
mainly isolated, diurnally driven convection or perhaps some
nocturnal emissions drifting east from the high Plains into
central Kansas.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

The main concern for this TAF period is definitely the
thunderstorm activity that is expected beginning after 0Z with the
highlighted timeframe of 3-9Z for all but KCNU. This forecast
maintained the VCTS wording and added tempo groups. There does
appear to be a strong wind component potential with these storms
thus this was hinted at within the tempo groups. IFR conditions
are definitely possible with this activity. Given the nature of
this activity, there will be updates without a doubt in the next
issuance based on later model trends.

Wind shear is another factor for KICT, KHUT and KSLN overnight.
This will be dependent on how this system moves through the area
as well as the thunderstorm activity which would bring in another
wind component already. Models are inconsistent in the wind shear
factor with respect to strength; however, it does appear to be
there. Thus it was worth a mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  88  59  78 /  60  30  40  10
Hutchinson      66  85  57  76 /  70  30  30  10
Newton          66  87  58  76 /  60  30  40  10
ElDorado        67  87  59  77 /  50  30  40  10
Winfield-KWLD   68  89  60  78 /  40  30  50  20
Russell         61  78  52  73 /  80  20  20  10
Great Bend      62  79  53  73 /  80  20  20  10
Salina          65  84  57  76 /  80  40  30  20
McPherson       65  85  56  76 /  70  30  30  10
Coffeyville     67  88  65  82 /  20  20  30  10
Chanute         66  87  63  81 /  20  20  30  20
Iola            66  87  63  81 /  20  20  30  20
Parsons-KPPF    67  88  64  82 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...VJP



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