000
FXUS63 KICT 172328
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
628 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditional severe risk this evening with continued convective
  chances into Thursday morning, mainly along/east of I-135.

- Windy and turning much cooler during Thursday with stretch of
  cooler (below climo) weather through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Main short term concern/challenge is convective chances/trends
this evening into Thursday morning. Low level moisture advection
on a return southerly flow through the evening across south
central Kansas and the Flint Hills looks to result in plume of
moderate instability as the developmental warm front noses
northward across the area. A blend of the NAM/RAP suggests
elevated cape values at or above 1500 j/kg in the presence of
moderate/strong cloud bearing shear. In the absence of stronger
forcing aloft, it may take a ramp-up of the nocturnal low level
jet to initiate convection along/north of the front by late
evening. So chances are somewhat conditional in the evening. If
storms develop, large hail will be the main concern with a
remote tornado risk if storms can become somewhat quasi-surface
based given impressive 0-1 km SRH. Better chances/coverage of
strong to severe convection should shift primarily into
northeast Kansas after midnight as a warmer EML advects across
much of the area. A strong cold front will plunge southward
across the area late tonight through Thursday morning, as a more
significant upper trof progresses eastward across the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. Stronger forcing/lift from the front
should allow for an uptick in showers/storms east of the
turnpike corridor in the early morning with sufficient
shear/instability combo for at least a marginal severe risk.
Otherwise, much colder air on brisk north winds on Thursday with
a period of post-frontal light rain/drizzle followed by
clearing in the afternoon.

Much cooler for Friday with weak migratory disturbances aloft
moving thru the modest westerly flow aloft. This may promote
some sprinkles from a mid-level cloud deck, though a drier
sub-cloud airmass should preclude measurable precip.

A rather coolish weather pattern will prevail through the
weekend periodic disturbances continuing to ripple through the
mean west-northwest flow aloft. Any precip chances looks spotty
and generally light. Some moderation closer to or a tad above
climo by early next week.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR is anticipated this evening with breezy southeast winds. Low
level moisture will slowly increase as mid 60 dewpoints are
already moving into central OK. As the low level moisture
arrives, we could see some MVFR cigs develop impacting much of
south central KS. An isolated storm will remain possible but
probabilities remain too low for mentioning in TAFs. A cold
front will arrive late tonight in central KS and during the
morning hours in south central and southeast KS. Some showers
and storms may accompany the front with some post-frontal MVFR
cigs also likely. Post-frontal north/northeast winds may gust
over 30 knots at times on Thursday. VFR is expected to return
from west to east as we move through the afternoon hours on
Thursday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...MWM