000
FXUS63 KICT 180802
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
302 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Strong cold front moves across the state today with showers/storms
  possible this morning

* Below normal temperatures through the weekend

* Rain showers possible late Friday into Saturday, especially across
  southern KS

* More rain chances during the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

As of 245am, a midlevel low was advancing through the northern
Plains with a trailing trough axis extending through the central
high Plains. At the surface, an inverted surface trough extends from
the OK Panhandle to near Salina, and northeastward from there.
Rounds of convection have been noted on the nose of a 45-50 mph LLJ
across northeast KS. Thus far, a stout EML near 17-19C has kept
our forecast area convection-free. As the midlevel trough axis
slides into the area, cooler midlevel temperatures may erode
this capping inversion and allow for additional development
southward into the Flint Hills. Steep midlevel lapse rates will
contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Sufficient veering wind
profiles will yield 25- 30 kt of effective shear. As such, the
strongest updrafts may support hail up to quarter size and wind
gusts up to 60 mph.

As the front sags southward through midday, surface heating ahead of
the front may erode convective inhibition for surface based
parcels. Should these surface storms develop across far southeast
KS, large hail up to golf ball size and damaging winds up to 60 mph
will be possible. In addition to the convective threat, much
cooler temperatures will overspread the area this morning
through midday. As the front passes any given location, a 10-15
degree temperature drop will occur. Afternoon temperatures will
remain in the 50s across much of the area.

Surface ridging will build into the forecast area late tonight into
Friday. The right entrance region of a midlevel speed max across the
upper Midwest combined with a subtle perturbation moving across the
state may yield rain showers late Friday night into Saturday. The
best chances appear to develop along the OK border. Additional rain
chances arrive late Monday through Wednesday as weak
perturbations within zonal flow traverse the central Plains.
Temperatures will increase towards the second half of next week
as midlevel ridging overspreading the Plains.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 111 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A strong cold front will blast south through the region
overnight through Thursday morning, with strong north winds and
MVFR to possibly patchy IFR ceilings in its wake. Northerly wind
gusts will exceed 30-35 kts at times. Thinking better
shower/thunderstorm chances will mostly remain across northeast
Kansas, within a zone of strong 850-600mb warm advection,
although the southerly periphery of this activity could flirt
with portions of east-central and southeast Kansas late tonight
through Thursday morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...ADK