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000
FXUS62 KILM 121350
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
950 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy today ahead of a reinforcing cold front this evening.
High pressure will build across the area this weekend, with dry
conditions and a slow warming trend through Sun. Ridging aloft
and surface high pressure will combine to produce summer like
temps across the area for much of the upcoming work- week.

&&

.UPDATE...
No changes to the forecast for the mid-morning updates.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Post frontal dry and cool air advection will continue to build
into the area today. Very breezy as low pressure deepens over
the southern Great Lakes and high pressure builds across the
Gulf Coast. Wind gusts this afternoon could reach 35 mph at
times.

Downslope flow and dry air advection will produce minimum RH
below 30% this afternoon. Yesterday`s rain totals should keep
fine fuels from easily igniting, but strong winds mean that
outdoor burning should be done carefully.

High temperatures today in the low to mid 70s. I have increased
highs a degree or two higher than the guidance mean given west
winds and mostly sunny skies. Cumulus late this afternoon is
likely to develop as the trough axis and associated shortwave
move overhead. A sprinkle or two is possible as this vort max
moves overhead. Dew point depressions below high cloud bases
indicate that it will be difficult for precip to reach the
ground, but such a strong vort max and minimal elevated
instability deserves the respect of a 15% PoP. Any showers that
do develop could mix down some stronger gusts.

Remaining mixed tonight. Overnight lows in the upper 40s to
around 50 near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Looking at a dry forecast this period with near normal temps
Sat and a category above normal for Sun maxes and mins.

By daybreak Sat, the mid-level trof axis will have swung off
the coast, allowing for ridging aloft to slowly become the
mainstay thru Sun night. At the sfc, northwesterly breezy
conditions will be on tap Sat with a tightened sfc pg. As the
mid-level trof axis moves further offshore, ridging aloft and
sfc high pressure centered across the NE Gulf of Mexico will
begin its influence across the FA. The sfc pg relaxes nicely Sat
night with nearly calm winds a possibility. Sfc high will slide
off the FL Atlantic coast late Sun and offshore Sun night.
Leeside trof develops across the western Carolinas by Sun night.
Look for a tightening of the sfc pg once again with active SW
winds Sun night.

Will need to keep an eye out for fire wx concerns during Sat
with midday thru aftn RHs dropping to less than 30% along with
gusty NW winds...with drying fuel moistures becoming a concern.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Still looking at dry long term fcst with summer-like temps in
the mid to possibly upper 80s not out of the question for
daily highs. This is roughly 2 to possibly 3 categories above
normal. The same can be said with the daily mins. Expect daily
sea breeze occurrence with a few days exhibiting a pinned sea
breeze given the decent flow aloft

Mon features a backdoor cold front that looks to drop near the
VA-NC border at its most southern extent. Any isolated shower
activity along it should remain north of the FA. Otherwise,
mid-level ridging to dominate Tue thru Thu. A cold front, well
away from it`s parent low located in the Great Lakes, may
actually push across the FA late Wed. At this point, the only
threat will be for clouds along it as it will be somewhat
moisture starved especially after passing across the
Appalachians within a scouring W to NW flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Windy today as cold and dry air advection rushes into the area.
Deepening mixed layer will allow gusts to exceed 30 knots this
afternoon. Instability around 5-6k ft AGL could create scattered
to broken cumulus this afternoon, remaining VFR. A few VFR
sprinkles or showers are possible across the northern tier
(LBT/ILM). VFR tonight as winds turn westerly and gustiness
subsides. Dry tonight with winds around 10 knots.

Extended Outlook...Gusty winds remain a concern through
Saturday, but otherwise, VFR is expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
Persistent westerly flow today will gust up to 30 knots at
times. Seas remain agitated, around 6-9 feet through the
afternoon. A shortwave will traverse the area this evening and
bring a brief uptick in winds. Gusts tonight should remain shy
of gale- force, up to 30-34 knots. Seas improving slightly to
around 5-7 feet. Small Craft Advisory conditions continue
through the period and into Saturday.

Saturday through Tuesday...
Residual SCA threat to start Sat, especially across the NC
Waters. Should see improving conditions later Sat as the sfc pg
relaxes allowing winds to diminish-some. Seas will continue
their slow subsiding trend, especially now with an offshore
wind trajectory aiding. The sfc pg to finally relax altogether
Sat night into Sun as the center of sfc high pressure slides
from the NE GoM to offshore from the FL Atlantic Coast. SW winds
to become active later Sun night thru Mon as leeside trof
develops and a modest pg develops. Backdoor cold front drops to
the VA- NC border Mon, then lifts back north Tue. SW-W winds
Mon will back and diminish-some to the SSW-SW Tue. Seas Sun thru
Tue to remain below SCA thresholds, but may peak at 3 to
5 ft late Sun night thru Mon b4 subsiding 2 to 3 ft Tue.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108-
     110.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108-110.
     High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ110.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054.
     High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for SCZ054.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...21
MARINE...DCH/21