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000
FXUS63 KILX 170810
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
310 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Westerly winds gusting to 35-45 mph will continue through mid afternoon
  today. Areas of blowing dust could lower visibilities in
  localized spots. Drivers should exercise caution and avoid
  driving in areas of significantly diminished visibilities.

- The next severe threat arrives Thursday. SPC has a slight risk (level
  2/5) for counties along and south of the I-72 corridor. This
  could be an all hazards event.

- Weekend still looks chilly but dry. Overnight lows Friday night
  to Sunday night drop into the 30s, with Saturday night being the
  coldest night. This temperature drop could harm any sensitive
  crops and vegetation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

This lovely Wednesday morning will be off to a windy start. The wind
will continue to veer to the west behind the departing cold front.
Westerly winds will continue to gust to 35-45 mph. For the most
part, they will stay just below or borderline advisory criteria.
However, yesterday`s winds overachieved at times out of the south
and westerly winds are know to over-perform, so they could easily
occasionally gust above 50 mph today. Forecast soundings from the
NAM and HRRR show 35-40 knots could be mixed down in the boundary
layer. The strong winds could stir up dust from the fields,
reducing visibility at times. Drivers should exercise caution and
avoid driving through areas of significantly reduced visibilities.

Today will be dry and warm. The next chance for showers and
thunderstorms arrives on Thursday as a second cold front is progged
to move across the state. This cold front will also bring cooler
temperatures behind it. The PWAT for tomorrow show values of 1.0-1.3
inches. There is a small possibility that the round of showers
and thunderstorms could pose a localized flash flooding risk in
urban areas and areas with already saturated soils.

The risk for severe weather tomorrow afternoon/evening is
primarily focused for counties along and south of the I-72
corridor. The biggest threat appears to be the hail risk.
Soundings show steep lapse rates and decent (50-60 knot) 0-6km
wind shear, supporting hail. The threat for an isolated tornado or
damaging winds are not ruled out. SPC has a slight risk (level
2/5) for the counties along and south of I-72. The marginal risk
(level 1/5) is spread southeast of a Schuyler to McLean county
line.

Temperatures this weekend will drop to below normal but will warm
back up with the new work week. The overnight lows Friday night to
Sunday night drop into the 30s, with Saturday night being the
coldest night (lows: 33-39). This temperature drop could harm any
sensitive crops and vegetation.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

MVFR ceilings have developed in an area of increased low-level
moisture behind earlier storms, but should scatter out prior to
daybreak. A cold front will work through the area later today,
turning winds from southerly to westerly by this afternoon. Wind
speeds will remain breezy today with gusts up to 30-35 kt picking by
by 14Z. Another brief period of MVFR ceiling will be possible by
late morning, but should only impact northern TAF sites (KBMI,
KPIA). Winds will lessen closer to 00Z with speeds around 12 kt or
less.

NMA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$