897
FXUS63 KIWX 010645
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
245 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions Wednesday and
  Thursday.

* Showers are likely (60-70%) late Thursday night into Friday.
  Isolated storms are also possible during this time with locally
  heavy rainfall the primary threat.

* There is another chance for showers Saturday afternoon into
  Saturday night (30-40%). Seasonably mild otherwise this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Mainly dry and mild conditions will be the story today into
Thursday. A mid level shortwave and associated sfc occlusion will
continue to track east-northeast near Lake Superior. This will force
a weakening cold front southeast through the area today with
somewhat breezy conditions. This front outruns any of its upper
level support with remnant mid-clouds (and possibly a few
leftover showers/sprinkles) outpacing sfc moisture returning
immediately in advance of the sfc front. Opted to hold with a
token slight chance PoP early this morning in IN/MI to account
for this isolated shower potential within the preceding low
level jet core. The front settles off to the south later today
into tonight as shortwave ridging overspreads the Great lakes
region. Warm advection then ramps back up on Thursday. This
occurs in response to the next low pressure system emerging over
the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Confidence in any warm
advection showers developing is low as the main low level jet
core sets up wnw of the local area during this time. Sfc warm
front makes it up close to the MI state line by late Thursday
otherwise with highs expected to range from the low-mid 70s in
south- central MI to the low-mid 80s south of US 30.

The parent low will once again take a more northeasterly track into
south-central Canada Friday into this weekend. However, a couple of
convectively aided, smaller scale, impulses will swing through the
base of this negative height anomaly. 00z guidance remained
consistent in lifting the first wave and associated cold front
slowly through the area late Thursday night into Friday with showers
and non-zero chances for isolated storms. Good low level moisture
return (sfc dewpoints into the low 60s and 850 mb dewpoints to 11-
12C) supports higher PoPs (60-70%) and some threat for locally heavy
rainfall. Another shortwave may follow through with another round of
showers (30-40%) later Saturday into Saturday night, though
confidence is low given model timing differences and questions
regarding moisture return. The weekend into next Monday will feature
mild/seasonable conditions otherwise.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 111 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

As a weak cold front approaches from the west, a few showers
will be possible in the vicinity of KSBN before 12Z. As the cold
front progresses across the area late this morning into the
early afternoon, winds will increase to around 15 kts with gusts
up to 25 kts. In addition, ceilings should remain VFR through
much of the day, but there may be times where ceilings drop to
near MVFR at 3500 to 4000 ft as clouds move through along the
cold front. Behind the front, winds shift this evening from
south to northwest and diminish to around 5 kts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Johnson