Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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054 FXUS63 KIWX 010514 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 114 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Other than a stray shower possible Wednesday, showers and storms are more possible Friday and Monday. - Unseasonably warm through the week with highs generally in the 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 High pressure slides east supporting continued dry conditions into Wednesday, with dew points dropping into the upper 40s and low 50s, as well as a return to a warm air advection pattern. Lows are expected to be slightly warmer than last night, in the 50s. With the drier air lingering and despite the relatively low temperatures, dew point depressions in the upper single digits to teens out ahead of a weak cold front may allow for a low end slight chance PoP Wednesday morning with greater chances in the west before temps warm and re- establish higher dew point depressions in the I-69 corridor with mixing ensuing. Wednesday`s cold front rises back north as a warm front Thursday allowing for our warmest day this week with highs securely in the 80s. Mid level temperature anomalies amounting to 1 to 2 SDs above normal indicate possible capping and with minimal shear, this would indicate any PoP shower/storm Thursday afternoon is more of the pulse variety if they do form. Have retained slight to low end chance PoPs for that set up. There`s some question about how fast the cold front moves through on Friday and there`s a lack of shear notable on models with much of the forcing going north of the area. While some instability could be around depending on the speed of the FROPA, this likely stays sub- severe. The atmospheric column is dry on Saturday with the best moisture residing south of US-24. Perhaps there`s a pop shower or storm there during the afternoon so will retain some PoPs to accommodate that. After a brief break in the unsettled weather occurs for Sunday with a surface high pressure center moving through, the Monday through Tuesday period looks to see renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms. Temperature wise, the norm this week will be highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s, which is slightly above average for this time of year. The warmest day will be Thursday with highs securely into the 80s, but both Wednesday and Friday have chances for a few areas to see 80 degrees as well. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 111 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 As a weak cold front approaches from the west, a few showers will be possible in the vicinity of KSBN before 12Z. As the cold front progresses across the area late this morning into the early afternoon, winds will increase to around 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. In addition, ceilings should remain VFR through much of the day, but there may be times where ceilings drop to near MVFR at 3500 to 4000 ft as clouds move through along the cold front. Behind the front, winds shift this evening from south to northwest and diminish to around 5 kts. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Roller AVIATION...Johnson