175
FXUS62 KJAX 051240
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
840 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast on track for more typical sea breeze t`storm activity
this afternoon and evening as full sunshine this morning across NE
FL/SE GA will push max temps into the upper 80s/near 90 over
inland areas and lower/middle 80s at the Atlantic beaches. This
heating will push East Coast sea breeze inland to merge with the
Gulf Coast sea breeze across inland NE FL and with PWATs around
1.5 inches, we should see scattered showers/storms this afternoon
over most areas with numerous showers/storms over portions of
inland NE FL where merger takes place. Slow and erratic storm
motion around 10 mph or less will lead to locally heavy rainfall
as the main storm impact, but still expect a few strong storms
with gusty winds to 50 mph, hail and frequent lightning over
inland areas where mergers take place. Activity will fade after
sunset and end by midnight with fair skies overnight with lows in
the mid/upper 60s inland and lower 70s along the coast with patchy
fog in some inland locations by sunrise Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Current satellite imagery indicates gradually dispersing leftover
cloud cover from last evening`s convection. Once this cloud cover
erodes and shifts east, areas of fog area likely to develop
across interior regions of southeast GA, generally northwestward
from Waycross. This region will be closely monitored for a Dense
Fog headlines through the morning.

Stagnant low level ridging remains dominant today with very light
southerly flow. Strong daytime heating will promote sea breezes
from both coasts to march inland this afternoon. Diurnal
instability should support scattered showers and thunderstorms
along each respective sea breeze front through the afternoon
hours. Increasing coverage likely along the I-75 corridor during
the early evening as sea breezes collide. The overall threat for
significant convection is fairly low given marginal lapse rates
aloft and unimpressive flow throughout the column. The primary
impact today will be the potential for localized, most likely
nuisance, flooding from slow and chaotic storm motions along the
sea breeze merger. HREF guidance does indicate pockets of 2-3"
amounts sprinkled along a line from Ocala FL northward to Folkston
GA.

Tonight, convection will wane after sunset and fizzle out
completely before midnight with associated debris clouds slowly
fading afterward. This will set the stage for another night of
patchy, and potentially areas, of inland fog again Sunday night
and early Monday morning.

Temps will rise quickly under mostly sunny conditions this
morning, reaching the upper 80s across the area today. Little
change in the dewpoints, keeping lows generally in the mid/upper
60s once again tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday night)

A weak shortwave will pass over the region on Monday leading to
increased chances for showers and storms for the beginning of the
week with convection becoming more inhibited by Tuesday as high
pressure ridging increases over the forecast area. Storm
developments will be more numerous along the diurnal sea breeze
boundaries and along areas of convergence. Temperatures will
experience a warming trend next week with max temps rising into
the lower 90s by Tuesday with overnight low temperatures dropping
down into the mid 60s over inland areas and in the upper 60s and
lower 70s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)

Predominantly dry weather through the rest of the week as high
pressure ridging strengthens over the region. Potential for
convection will increase by the end of the week ahead of an
approaching cold front pressing in from out of the west.
Temperatures will rise into the mid 90s as the week progresses
with temps potentially reaching record seasonal levels before the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

More normal sea breeze activity expected today with morning
sunshine and VFR conditions which will bring in East Coast sea
breeze past coastal TAF sites and will continue brief TEMPO groups
during the afternoon hours 19-23Z at JAX/VQQ/GNV for MVFR TSRA
activity with possible gusty winds to 25 knots. Activity ends by
sunset (00Z) then mainly VFR overnight with the usual patchy MVFR
fog at VQQ after 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will remain anchored northeast of the local waters
through Monday allowing afternoon sea breeze development each
day. As high pressure repositions further south Tuesday, winds
trend southerly and then turn offshore toward as the ridge axis
slides farther south toward the end of the upcoming week. Offshore
winds will increase Friday ahead of a frontal passage Friday
night into Saturday.

Rip Currents: Low risk at area beaches today with surf around 1-2
feet. Risk will increase to Moderate as surf grows to about 2-3
feet on Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for...

Tuesday May 7th...JAX 94/1977...CRG 94/1977...GNV 96/1955...AMG 93/1962

Wednesday May 8th...JAX 96/1959...CRG 93/1977...GNV 97/1955...AMG 95/1962

Thursday May 9th...JAX 96/1962...CRG 93/2008...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/1962

Friday May 10th...JAX 94/2017...CRG 95/2003...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  65  88  67 /  30  20  70  30
SSI  82  71  83  69 /  30  10  40  30
JAX  88  67  88  67 /  40  10  50  20
SGJ  86  69  86  69 /  30  20  40  20
GNV  90  66  88  65 /  60  40  60  10
OCF  91  66  89  67 /  60  50  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$