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000
FXUS62 KJAX 222310
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
710 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Cooler and dry as surface high pressure across the mid-MS River
Valley this afternoon builds over Georgia through tonight. Low
level winds will veer more ENE through daybreak, with some coastal
clouds edging inland toward the St. Johns River basin through
daybreak while mostly clear skies prevail inland. There could be
some shallow ground fog across inland SE GA and the Suwannee River
Valley given recent rainfall, but there will likely be enough NNE
drainage flow to keep the airmass mixed enough to prevent
significant fog formation.

The onshore flow will keep the coast more mild with lows in the
mid/upper 50s, while inland drier air, mostly clear skies, and
weak surface winds will enable min temps to drop 5-9 deg below
climo into the mid/upper 40s by daybreak Tue.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

High pressure conditions will dominate the weather pattern
through midweek with dry weather and clear skies persisting
through the period. High pressure will move further towards the
east during this period as a frontal boundary pushes in from north
of the region. Initially onshore winds will shift to become more
westerly by midweek, becoming more in step with the prevailing
flow pattern. Temperatures will experience a warming trend through
this period with daily high temps rising from out of the 70s on
Tuesday up into the lower to mid 80s on Wednesday. Overnight low
temperatures will rise from out of the lower 50s up into the mid
50s by the end of the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Potential for showers to develop by the end of the week and into
the weekend over southeast Georgia as high pressure moves further
off to the east and moisture ahead of the advancing cold front off
to the north moves into the region. Convection is expected to be
inhibited during this period, with possible developments being
isolated to widely scattered. Temperatures are expected to be near
and slightly above the seasonal average through the end of the
week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Breezy northeasterly
winds this evening will continue to wane to around 10 kts along
the coast and light and variable inland. Northeasterly winds
increase again after 15Z with winds around 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

High pressure will build northwest of the region today and then
north of the local waters tonight with a continuation of elevated
winds and seas. The high builds over the local waters Tuesday and
Wednesday as winds and seas decrease. A front approaches from the
north Wednesday night into Thursday, and begins to stall near the
local Georgia waters. This front will shift westward across the
local waters late Thursday into Friday, then high pressure will
strengthen northeast of the region Friday into the weekend with a
return of stronger easterly winds and building seas.

Rip Currents: A high rip current risk will continue for NE FL
beaches through Tuesday as winds become onshore and 9-10 second
swells enter the local waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  45  76  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  55  71  58  79 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  50  74  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  57  74  57  80 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  47  79  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  48  79  53  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$