Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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409 FXUS63 KJKL 050856 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 456 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorm potential lasts through the next 7 days. - Above normal temperatures are forecast through Thursday. A cold front should pass late in the week and bring readings down to near or below normal. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 456 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2024 Active weather expected across eastern Kentucky heading into the new work week, as a weak cold front and wave of low pressure move through the region. Isolated to scattered storms are expected to move through the area today, especially this afternoon into early this evening, during peak heating, and when instability will be maximized. A weak cold front will be the trigger for showers and storms today, but should only provide enough lift to support isolated to scattered convection, in spite of the moisture and instability that will be in place. After the first round of rain ends this evening, another round of more widespread and robust showers and storms will begin moving into our southwest counties very late tonight into early Monday morning. This second wave of rain will be in response to a wave of low pressure that forms along a slow moving cold front to our southwest. As this low moves over our area on Monday, it will allow numerous showers and scattered storms to fire during peak heating Monday afternoon. The higher resolution models are all showing similar solutions supporting only isolated to scattered convection at best, so today`s forecast was based on that data. The NAMNEST, RAP, NAM12, and HRRR were all in pretty good agreement on the extent of todays showers and storms. However, considering how unstable and moist the atmosphere will be today, decided to lean more toward scattered activity than isolated in spite of the models output. Rain chances on Monday should be much better since a stronger system will be moving through, and the atmosphere will still be quite moist and unstable. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible at times on Monday with any thunderstorms. Temperatures will continue to average well above normal today and Monday, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on tap. Winds should be out of the southwest at 5 to 10 mph today and tomorrow, and light and variable again tonight. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 456 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2024 A persistent wet weather pattern will continue in place through the first part of the long term forecast. Generalized west southwest flow in the mid/upper levels will overlie low level south southwest flow off the Gulf of Mexico. A stalled frontal boundary is forecast to be near the Ohio River Monday evening as a shortwave trough aloft departs to the east. The front is expected to shift north Monday night, then back south into KY by Wednesday morning as another shortwave trough aloft tracks by, then back north again Wednesday night. The front will finally make a strong push southeast through our area late in the week as a more substantial mid/upper level trough drops southeast over the eastern CONUS. Models are coming into better agreement for a cold frontal passage on Thursday. The presence of the frontal boundary along with the shortwave troughs should support multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms, with likely POPs now in the forecast each period from Monday night through Wednesday night area wide. Precip may linger into Thursday, but there is some model variation concerning the arrival of drier mid/upper level air wrapping into a deepening storm system passing to our north on Thursday. This drier air aloft will be fleeting, as the upper level trough drops into the eastern CONUS. The much colder air aloft associated with the trough should still allow for scattered showers/thunderstorms to bubble up at times even after cold fropa as we move into the weekend. Specific timing of impulses enhancing this activity remains problematic at that long time range. Our relatively weak flow aloft presently should strengthen by Tuesday. The increasing shear will be more supportive of organized convection, with a resulting severe thunderstorm risk beginning on Tuesday and lasting until our last round of convection before cold fropa. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2024 A few rain showers were ongoing at TAF issuance near SJS and in parts of Pike County and along the southwest VA border. These should continue to slowly dissipate and should be gone by 10 or 11Z today. SCT to BKN middle and low level clouds will persist through the night as well, but should scatter out by mid to late morning across the area. Isolated to scattered rain showers are expected to begin popping back by late morning, into the early afternoon on Sunday, as diurnal heating commences and instability increases. A few thunderstorms will also be possible, but all the activity should be scattered enough to warrant no mention in the TAFs just yet. Should this situation change, the necessary amendments will be made. Due to rainfall that occurred near many of the TAF sites in the past 18 to 20 hours, and with skies clearing off some overnight, conditions will continue to be favorable for fog formation across the area. In fact, SME has already IFR and LIFR VSBYs due to fog, while LOZ has seen low end MVFR conditions. Included tempo groups in each TAF to account for fog between 8 and 13Z. Any fog that forms should mix out quickly once the sun comes up. Any BKN clouds will also slowly scatter out as the sun rises, and should give way to persistent SCT coverage by 16 or 17Z Sunday. Winds will remain light and variable overnight, and should increase to 5 to 10kts out of the southwest by 15 or 16Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...AR