792
FXUS62 KKEY 010218
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1018 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 917 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024
KBYX is mostly quiet at this time, but it`s worth mentioning that
there are some outflow boundaries still moving across our forecast
area from earlier thunderstorms that came off of the peninsula.
These could lead to intermittent, short-lived showers over the
waters west of the Marquesas Keys. Along the Reef, surface
observations are showing fresh northeast to east breezes. The
good news is that the air constantly moving keeps things from
feeling stagnant, and it is certainly welcomed when our
temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 80s. If there is a
silver lining, dew points are still trying to creep closer to the
lower 70s, but some observations are still showing values in the
mid 70s. Overall, this isn`t the most uncomfortable night, but we
would probably enjoy it more if we could knock a few degrees off
of both the temperatures and the dew points.

The OOZ sounding has calculated a PWAT value of 1.22", which is
between the 10th and 25th percentile, telling us that this is
relatively dry air for this time of year. The swath of drier air
is also reflected in the CIMS MIMIC product, which is showing PWAT
values around 1.30" to 1.40", give or take a few hundredths of an
inch. The combination of the relatively drier air, and a wind
profile unfavorable for any activity have resulted in the quieter
conditions along the Florida Keys this evening and should allow
for these quieter conditions to continue overnight.

There are no changes or updates needed to the current forecast
package at this time as everything remains on track.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 917 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024
Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal
waters tonight for northeast to east winds of 20 to 25 knots and
seas up to 7 feet in the Straits of Florida. From synopsis, high
pressure over the Ohio Valley will dive southeastward, emerging
off the Mid- Atlantic coast over the weekend. This will result in
freshened northeast to east tonight, lasting through much of the
weekend.



&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 917 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the
TAF period. At EYW, near-surface easterly winds at the beginning
of the period will continue to gust near 20 knots, but will
diminish temporarily between approximately 08Z and 12Z before
gusts of near 20 to 25 knots resume. However, MTH will continue
to see gusts up to near 25 knots at times. A mix of showers and
thunderstorms may approach the island chain at times during the
TAF period, but there is low enough confidence with respect to
where the best chances for storms are, so VCSH is in the later end
of the TAF but it is difficult to say if this will turn into any
onsite weather indicator.


&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in day in 1871, the daily record rainfall of 2.81"
was recorded in Key West.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  80  88  79  88 /  20  20  30  40
Marathon  80  87  79  88 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....DP
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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