Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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860 FXUS63 KLBF 280554 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1254 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected late this evening into tomorrow, with locally heavy rainfall (amounts up to 1.00") as the primary threat. Hail cannot be ruled out, though confidence in any severe weather threat continues to wane. - A mix of rain and snow is possible across the western Sandhills early tomorrow morning, though no accumulations are expected. - Additional shower and thunderstorm chances exist nearly each day Tuesday and beyond, with any threat for severe weather uncertain at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Currently, the area sits in a postfrontal airmass, with widespread low stratus and northeasterly winds. Temperatures have held in the middle to upper 40s across much of the Sandhills and northern Nebraska, with low to middle 50s in southwest Nebraska where some clearing is occurring. To the south of the area, widespread thunderstorm development is underway along a surface stationary front, draped across central and western Kansas. Additional thunderstorm development is underway across eastern Colorado near a deepening surface low. For the local area, the primary focus will be the ongoing convection across eastern Colorado. High-res guidance continues to be in good agreement with respect to the evolution of this, with it lifting northward with time into northwest Kansas. The environment across southwest Nebraska continues to look very unfavorable for any robust convection to persist into the local area, with MUCAPE values of 0 along and north of HWY 34. This points to any thunderstorms that survive the trek into northwest Kansas quickly waning as they enter southwest Nebraska this evening. Still, showers should overspread areas near and east of HWY 83 from south to north this evening, gradually ending near midnight. After midnight, the upper low will begin to eject eastward across the area, with increasing precipitation in the deformation axis across western Nebraska as FGEN increases aloft. This precipitation shield should then slowly translate from west to east across the area early tomorrow morning, persisting through much of the afternoon. As temperatures fall overnight, cannot totally rule out some wet snow mixing into the rain west of HWY 61, though very warm ground should inhibit any accumulation. Any threat from this looks to be tied to any visibility reductions at snow falls. The persistent rain tomorrow will keep high temperatures only in the 40s to low 50s across the area along with breezy northeast winds, setting up a dreary end to the weekend. Widespread precipitation amounts of 0.50-1.00" are expect for areas east of HWY 61, with the higher end amounts (closer to 1.00") near and east of HWY 83. Amounts of <0.50" are expected for areas west of HWY 61. Precipitation ends from west to east tomorrow evening, as the upper low begins to pull away from the area and dry air is ushered in behind. Surface high pressure then settles into the area tomorrow night, weakening winds as skies clear. This should set up efficient radiational cooling across the area, and lows look to fall into the upper 20s to low 30s. With the median frost date still a few weeks away across the area, no frost/freeze headlines are anticipated at this time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 The active weather regime looks to persist into next week, with just a brief lull in activity on Monday as shortwave ridging translates across the area. Upper troughing then drops southward into the northern tier into Tuesday, with flow aloft transitioning zonal then broad southwesterly by Tuesday night. This southwesterly flow then looks to persist into late week, as an upper low begins to deepen across the Rockies into Thursday, before ejecting into the Plains into Friday. This points to near daily precipitation chances Tuesday and beyond, with the passage of at least a few surface frontal boundaries. Persistently strong wind fields aloft does support ample wind shear for bouts of severe weather next week, though guidance remains in little agreement with respect to low level moisture quality and associated instability. Trends will continue to be monitored for the threat for severe weather, though confidence in any threat remains low for now. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Areas of rain and low stratus will continue to plague both the LBF and VTN terminals through the forecast period. A broad shield of precipitation continues to lift north across the Sandhills, with impacts expected to increase at VTN shortly after the start of the valid period. Rain intensity should promote continued low visibility and ceilings with LIFR conditions through sunrise. A break has developed at LBF and will persist for a few hours before filling in just prior to sunrise. A quick return to IFR is expected with this renewed development before exiting by late morning and returning to MVFR. LBF may return to VFR conditions prior to the end of the period but later forecasts may alter the timing of this. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Brown AVIATION...NMJ