Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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262 FXUS64 KLCH 091554 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1054 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1044 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Not much has changed with this latest forecast update. Still expecting an increase in showers and thunderstorms over the northern half of the area (north of I-10) sometime after 7PM with the bulk of stronger and severe storms impacting this same area between 10 PM and 2 AM. All hazards are possible with storms, especially strong winds and large hail. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out. This is going to be a late night event, so we are cautioning folks to have multiple means of receiving emergency alerts. 11/Calhoun && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Winds across the region are lighter this morning than has been seen the last few days and this has allowed for more widespread fog development although none of it is particularly dense at this hour and don`t expect widespread dense fog to be an issue. Visibilities should improve by 14Z. Additionally, some light shower activity is being observed from DeRidder to Alexandria along the remnant boundary of an MCS that moved through parts of northeast Texas and Northwest Louisiana yesterday evening. Don`t expect this to amount to much and precip should gradually dissipate over the next couple of hours. Another morning of near record or record high minimum temperatures as a very tropical airmass remains in place. Afternoon highs are again expected to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s with afternoon apparent temperatures likely eclipsing 100 across central Louisiana and interior parts of Southeast Texas. A shortwave pushing across the southern plains will swing a cold front through the region late this evening into early Friday morning. Guidance has been in good agreement over the last couple of days in developing an MCS across central and eastern Texas that will then cross central and northern Louisiana tonight. Severe weather parameters favor the development of a line of damaging winds and large hail, but there will be a sharp precipitation gradient with very little, if any, precipitation making it as far south as the I-10 corridor. Thus, the highest severe will be limited to northern Tyler, Jasper, Newton counties and Vernon, Rapides and Avoyelles parishes. Obviously, with the oppressive tropical airmass ahead of the MCS, convection will have abundant moisture to work with and periods of torrential rainfall are also likely within the MCS which could lead to localized flash flooding. Behind the front, noticeably cooler, drier air will filter into the region Friday with dewpoints falling back into the low to mid 60s in what will be a refreshing reprieve from the mid to upper 70 dewpoints we`ve endured this week. The nice weather will continue through Saturday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Enjoy it because this very well could be the last gasp of spring for the northern gulf coast. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 The long term period will be active with isolated showers and storms almost daily. Going into Sunday, an upper level cutoff low will be moving into the Plains while at the surface, the high pressure will be moving out of the area. As the surface high departs, southerly flow will resume which will bring in a plume of moisture over the area. PWATs are expected to quickly rise over the day with maximum values across the southern tier of the CWA near the 2 inch mark. Showers and storms will increase over the day, with heavy rainfall likely. As a result, WPC has outlined our CWA in a Slight to Marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Sunday. This activity will continue into Monday, as the upper level low moves further east over the Central Plains and a warm front lifts north out of the Gulf. Once again, heavy rainfall can be expected in this moisture rich environment and with the area already having received rain over saturated soils, additional amounts can lead to flash flooding. WPC has outlined the entire CWA in a Slight risk for excessive rainfall for Monday. By Tuesday, models are split on the placement of the upper level low and trailing cold front. Overall it is expected to open up as it moves east with the front likely to move through our northern zones, however the timing and placement vary from model to model. Stigger/87 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 648 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Patchy fog will gradually dissipate by 14Z this morning with ceilings improving to MVFR around the same time where they will remain through most of the day. A complex of thunderstorms associated with a cold front will transit central Louisiana late this evening into early Friday morning. The energy associated with the complex is expected to remain north of the coastal terminals so AEX is the most likely terminal to see convection. The coastal terminals will likely again see areas of light fog development and falling ceilings through the evening and early morning hours prior to fropa. Behind the front, winds will turn Northwesterly, but will remain light. Visibilities will improve, but ceilings will remain IFR through Friday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A light to moderate onshore flow and seas with seas 2 to 3 feet will prevail today. Areas of dense fog may reduce visibilities below one mile through the early morning with visibilities gradually improving through the day. A cold front will push through the coastal waters Thursday night accompanied by isolated showers and thunderstorms. Offshore flow will develop behind the front Friday and Saturday. Onshore flow becomes reestablished Sunday as high pressure slides east of the area. Precipitation chances will also increase again Sunday and Monday as a series of upper level disturbance moves across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 92 66 85 59 / 20 50 0 0 LCH 88 72 88 65 / 10 10 10 10 LFT 92 75 88 66 / 10 20 10 10 BPT 89 72 89 67 / 10 10 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...66