031
FXUS64 KLIX 050832
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
332 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Weak ridging remains over the area today and tomorrow, providing
warm temperatures to continue to build over the area. The
subsequent downstream surface high pressure over the Atlantic will
keep providing warm and moist air advection into the area. The
pumping in of warm and moist air at the surface will create
adequate instability (>2000 j/kg SBCAPE) across the area ahead of
a decaying storm complex from Texas. With the instability in place
and the forcing from a potential outflow boundary from the storm
complex, the western and northwestern portions of the area could
see scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary. Those
cells will be competing with the subsidence of the ridge, so that
is mainly why the coverage should be scattered in nature. Needless
to say, the CAPE and lack of wind shear with the suppression from
the ridge supports maybe a strong storm or two, with a marginally
severe storm possible in the early afternoon as the outflow from
the complex passes through.

Monday looks to similar to Sunday. Slight ridging is still
expected to be over the area with continued onshore flow. The only
discernible difference is that we will not have a decaying storm
complex coming our way. So, although we will have adequate
instability again (>2000 j/kg SBCAPE), a lack of a trigger like an
outflow boundary and the suppression from the ridge will keep
rain coverage very isolated to scattered at most.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Much of the long term will be dominated by ridging over the
northeast gulf. This will keep us mainly dry and and very warm
over the next week. We will continue to get warmer and more humid
over the week, with potential heat indices getting over 100
degrees Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures are expected to
be near or over 10 degrees warmer than average next Tuesday
through Thursday. That first stretch of "summer-like" heat catches
people offguard since we have not been acclimated to it yet, so
make sure you`re not caught off guard by the first shot of summer
heat.

There is some indications that a cold front will make its way down
here towards the end of the week on Friday. With it being 5+ days
out, there is some uncertainty around this occurring. We are
starting to get into that time of year where fronts stall out
before making it this far south, so do not be surprised if that
one does not make it down here. If it does, expects showers and
thunderstorms along it with the very warm and moist air ahead of
it and a slight cool down for the weekend into the upper 70s and
low 80s.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The only ongoing flight restrictions are MVFR to IFR visibilities
at KMCB, where evening rainfall occurred. Those conditions could
deteriorate further toward sunrise, with LIFR or VLIFR conditions
at least possible, although probabilities aren`t particularly
high. At remaining terminals, anticipate MVFR to potentially IFR
conditions to redevelop around 10z, with conditions improving
somewhat between 14-15z.

The forecast scenario for the daytime hours Sunday is going to
look a lot like Saturday. Another shortwave is expected to slide
overtop the ridging over the Gulf. That will probably produce
scattered SHRA/TSRA again, potentially as early as 15z near KBTR.
Probabilities are high enough to mention again at KBTR/KMCB/KHDC.
While the threat isn`t zero at remaining terminals, it is too low
to mention in the body of the forecast. Similar to the last couple
days, as well, convection should dissipate prior to sunset Sunday.
VFR conditions are anticipated during the evening hours Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The entire forecast period will be dominated by ridging and
onshore flow. This will lead to fairly benign marine conditions
for today and the upcoming week. There are indications of a
potential frontal passage at the end of the week on Friday, but
due to how far out it is and the time of year, there is a bit of
uncertainty at this time for that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  84  66  85  69 /  60  20  40   0
BTR  87  71  88  73 /  60  20  30   0
ASD  87  71  88  72 /  30  10  20   0
MSY  87  73  87  75 /  30  10  20   0
GPT  86  72  84  73 /  20  10  20   0
PQL  88  70  86  71 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...JZ