514
FXUS63 KLMK 110555
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
155 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Breezy Saturday with brief light rain possible in southern
    Indiana and northern portions of central Kentucky.

*   Lots of sunshine with moderate temperatures and light breezes on
    Sunday.

*   Active pattern next week with almost daily chances of showers
    and storms Monday through Friday. Severe weather is not expected
    through at least Thursday. Strong storm chances may increase
    slightly by Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

An upper level shortwave trough is dropping southeast over the Ohio
Valley this afternoon, while a more potent upper level wave rotates
southeast over the Upper Midwest in an active NW flow pattern. In
between is very brief shortwave ridging, which will move over our
region this afternoon and evening. A sfc cold front has pushed well
south of the CWA. Winds are brisk out of the north, and lingering
moisture in the lowest 5 kft is contributing to SCT-BKN low clouds.
These clouds will continue to slowly thin and lift from north to
south into the evening hours. This should provide just enough sfc
heating to boost afternoon temps into the upper 60s to near 70 F.

Tonight looks dry with light winds. Sfc winds turn southwesterly
during the early morning hours ahead of the low pressure system
currently over the Upper Midwest. This system rotates southeast over
the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley tonight and Saturday, dragging
a cold front through central Kentucky and southern Indiana tomorrow.
Deeper moisture and stronger forcing will be displaced to our
northeast, so portions of the Upper Ohio Valley will see more rain
out of this system. However, we will see a relatively narrow band of
thicker clouds and scattered light rain pass southeast across
southern Indiana and northern portions of central Kentucky through
the morning and early afternoon hours. QPF is a few hundredths of an
inch at most, especially from southeastern Indiana through northern
KY and the Bluegrass.

Other than that, widely scattered showers are expected to develop
during the afternoon along the cold front. This will most likely be
in the southern Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions. A brief
shower could be accompanied by gusty winds to around 30 mph. But
most will see a mainly dry and breezy day with winds gusting to 20-
30 mph. Winds will veer westerly and then northwesterly as the cold
front passes through the region. Expect a period of sunshine in the
wake of the front, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Chamber of Commerce weather is still expected for Sunday as weak
high pressure crosses the southeastern United States. Other than
possibly some valley fog in the Lake Cumberland region around dawn,
we`ll have plenty of sunshine with temperatures warming from morning
lows in the middle and upper 40s to afternoon highs in the middle
and upper 70s paired with comfortably low humidity.

A compact 5H shortwave/vort max and accompanying surface low over
Kansas Monday morning will steadily push eastward and arrive in the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Tuesday evening. Precipitable water
values will likely be above the climatological 75th percentile
Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. However, instability and
shear will be weak so just widespread showers and scattered sub-
severe thunderstorms are expected. Mean QPF Monday evening through
Tuesday evening is around half an inch, with the 90th percentile
around an inch. Area rivers will be back in their banks by then
(with the exception of some lingering minor flooding along the Green
downstream from Woodbury), so renewed flooding is not expected at
this time, though river level rates of fall may be slightly reduced.

Wednesday through Thursday night weak ridging at the surface and
aloft may bring us a mostly dry period. Then by Friday an upper
trough will be approaching from the Plains with a surface low
somewhere over the Midwest. This system should have better
instability and shear to work with compared to the early week
system, along with sufficient moisture for showers and
thunderstorms. Upper support will be a little better as well,
suggesting slightly better chances for stronger storms.

Current rainfall amounts for the entire Monday through Friday period
are in the 1 to 2 inch range, though with convective precipitation
some areas will get more/less than others.

High temperatures each day will generally be in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 154 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

The forecast remains on track. VFR conditions are expected to last
through the period. Currently, skies are mostly clear. This will
remain until a cold front nears SDF around 12z. Scattered to broken
VFR ceilings are expected to pass over the TAF sites. A little light
rain could fall around SDF and LEX, but a drop in visibilities and
ceilings isn`t expected. With dry low levels in place, virga in
these areas could be more likely. The front will however bring gusty
winds and wind shifts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...KDW