Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 261151
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
651 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.Aviation...

Upper low over SE Arkansas will continue to move slowly southeast.
Moisture continues to wrap around the low with several more hours
of VCSH will continue until some drier air returns. IFR conditions
will prevail this morning with a slow return to MVFR conditions
later this more with VFR conditions returning by the end of the
day. winds will generally be light and from the west to northwest.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 359 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018)

.Short Term...Today through Friday night

Models this morning are showing only minimal differences with the
upper level system that continues to produce some occasional showers
over central and eastern sections of the state. Given these overall
small differences between the models, a blend of forecast solutions
is preferred.

Latest satellite and radar imagery shows the placement of the upper
low quite clearly at this time. Feature is located over southeast
Arkansas and matches up very well where the high res models say it
should be. Mainly light showers continue to rotate around the upper
level low with most models indicating the majority of the precip
getting out of the CWA by early this morning. With that in mind,
will include a pre first period in the forecast to take into account
lingering showers early this morning.

Even with the upper low moving away, there will still be plenty of
mid to low level moisture to deal with. As such, clouds will be
hanging around this morning but some clearing is expected to occur
during the day as drier air finally wraps in.

Progressive pattern will continue with another weak front moving
through the broad cyclonic flow over the eastern half of the
nation tonight through early Friday. Models have been steadfast of
late in weakening this system as it moves through and this has not
changed this morning. Front may squeeze out a sprinkle or two but
that should be about it. Another, even weaker boundary will move
into northern Arkansas by the end of the period. Another day with
below normal temperatures is expected today with highs close to
normal for Friday.
&&

Long Term...Saturday through Wednesday

An upper ridge of high pressure over the Rockies Saturday will
provide northwest flow over Arkansas. Areas of low pressure aloft
will be over the Great Lakes and west coast. The upper ridge will
slowly move east through the weekend and by Monday will be over the
Mississippi River. On Tuesday, the western low starts to dig south
and turns to the northeast Wednesday.

Surface high pressure with dry air will be over Arkansas Saturday. A
dry cold front moves into north Arkansas early Sunday but washes
out. Dry weather continues on Monday with high pressure moving
through the Appalachians. The next chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of an approaching
cold front. Temperatures will generally be slowly warming through
the period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...GOUDSWARD


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