Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 240845
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
345 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
Surface analysis this morning shows high moisture with dewpoints
at or above 65 degrees in much of the area, numerous outflow
boundaries, and a stalled front in the vicinity of northeast/north
central Arkansas, where some thunderstorms have already
developed. High moisture near the ground and light winds have
allowed fog to form.

The fog will scatter out after sunrise. More showers and
thunderstorms will be possible later this morning, as the heating
of the day kicks in and interacts with the mesoscale boundaries
over the region, and the boundary washes out. The storms will
diminish after sunset, with fog forming toward morning. Expect a
repeat performance on Friday.

As has been the case the last few days, while widespread severe
storms aren`t expected, an isolated storm or two could briefly
become severe, with damaging winds the primary concern. A bigger
concern with any stronger storms would be heavy rainfall with high
precipitable water and low level storm motion next to nothing.
This could lead to localized flooding issues.
&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
AR will be on the ERN periphery of an elongated upper ridge that
will be stretching north from NRN Mexico into the NRN Plains at the
start of the long term period. Diurnally driven convection will
remain the primary concern early in the long term period...but as
time goes on...the system in the Gulf will lift north into the SERN
CONUS. Where this system eventually goes will dictate the overall
forecast late in the weekend into early next week. At this
time...significant uncertainty still remains on exactly where this
system will eventually move...but do think at least some influence
will be seen for AR.

Latest data does indicate the majority of tropical system`s
influence will stay east of the state...but do think some increased
POPs will be seen for early next week. However...the ridge to the
west will attempt to expand over time...which will tend to limit
convective potential. So far now...will keep POPs on the lower
end...slight chance to low end chance POPs...and likely diurnally
driven. Temps will likely be near or just above normal...though if
the tropical system remains further east...hotter temps will be more
likely. For now...keep temps just above normal...with increasing
temps into the upper 80s to mid 90s for highs by the end of the
forecast. Lows look to gradually increase as well.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No significant fire weather issues are expected through the next
seven days.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     84  68  88  68 /  30  20  40  30
Camden AR         89  71  90  69 /  30  20  40  30
Harrison AR       79  65  84  65 /  60  20  50  30
Hot Springs AR    86  71  89  69 /  40  20  40  20
Little Rock   AR  86  71  89  70 /  30  20  40  30
Monticello AR     88  73  89  70 /  30  20  50  40
Mount Ida AR      83  68  88  68 /  40  20  40  20
Mountain Home AR  82  65  86  65 /  40  20  50  30
Newport AR        86  70  88  69 /  30  20  40  30
Pine Bluff AR     88  72  89  69 /  30  20  40  30
Russellville AR   82  70  88  69 /  50  20  40  20
Searcy AR         85  69  89  68 /  30  20  40  30
Stuttgart AR      86  73  89  71 /  30  20  40  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...57 / Long Term...62


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