Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 201843 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
140 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday morning.
Widespread clouds between 4000 and 6000 feet will be noted across
Arkansas this afternoon. Clouds will dissipate tonight, with some
high clouds remaining. Gusty northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph will
occur this afternoon, with gusts over 25 mph in places. Winds will
decrease to 4 to 8 mph tonight. (46)

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 306 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night
Recent, local radar and surface observations indicate very light
precipitation affecting portions of southwest Missouri and northwest
Arkansas, moving to the southeast. Wraparound moisture associated
with east Tennessee low pressure, as well as shortwave energy
approaching from the west are promoting this light precipitation
and low cloud cover. Most of the precipitation will end by noon,
with the low clouds decreasing from west to east during the
afternoon hours.

Surface high pressure will build into the mid south late tonight and
early Wednesday, and will promote dry conditions for the rest of the

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday
An unsettled, fairly active pattern will be taking shape in the long
term periods, as the longwave pattern shifts. The subtropical jet
will become more active, which will enhance our rain chances.

At the beginning of the long term period, a remnant frontal boundary
will be moving north/northeast through the region as upper ridging
attempts to build over the Rockies. The ridge will translate eastward
into Friday, with the surface boundary stalled out or meandering
near northern Arkansas. The mean flow will stay active, sending
several systems through and interacting with the frontal boundary.
The result will be an increase in showers and thunderstorms,
particularly over northern Arkansas.

Eventually, the ridge will shift eastward, with southwest upper flow
developing. At the same time, low pressure will form along the
stalled/meandering boundary in the plains, and will bring a new cold
front into the region during the weekend. However, with upper
ridging acting as a block, this front will also stall out somewhere
over Arkansas, where it would likely remain beyond the end of the
current forecast period. Several systems will move through and
interact with the front. There will be a continued stream of low
level moisture moving up from the Gulf, and mid and upper level
moisture streaming in from the Pacific.

So, if you, much like myself, have followed Arkansas weather for any
length of time, you will no doubt recognize this as a pattern
conducive to heavy rainfall. At this point, I`m not even going to
venture a guess as to specific rainfall amounts this far out. You
know as well as I do, the details will likely change to varying
degrees. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts in the coming


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

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