Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
000
FXUS64 KLZK 281028 AAA
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
528 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Sfc ridging will remain in place over the area while an H500
trough shifts east of the region. A batch of mid-level clouds
continues to slowly drift east over central parts of the state
early this morning which has stalled overnight cooling. But, as
daybreak approaches and clouds shift east, temperatures could
fall with some locations potentially seeing some frost development.
Mid-level ridging will return from the west through Friday while
sfc ridging shifts to the southeast. This will provide an increase
in temperatures along with S-SW winds. The forecast remains dry
through the period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
The long term period will start off on a rather quiet and warm note.
Through the upcoming weekend, the upper pattern will feature a broad
ridge over the Plains/MS Valley regions with a trough located just
off the CA coast. Changes are forthcoming heading into early Monday
however. The aforementioned W coast system will track Ewrd across
the Four Corners region into the Rockies on Monday. Going into
Tuesday, the trough will eject into the Plains, move across the
region, and begin to depart the Mid-S on Wednesday.
At the surface, high pressure is anticipated to be situated across
the SE CONUS with a low slowly tracking SW to NE across the plains
states. Across AR, winds will be S/SWrly between these features
promoting above average temperatures and increasing moisture across
the region. By Monday afternoon, the positively tilted upper
trough will pivot towards the MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop along and ahead of cold front. The cold
front will extend to the S and W of the surface low which is set
to move across portions of MO. Given the orientation of the upper
level forcing to the cold front, rainfall could prove to be heavy
at times across the state. It is still too early to focus in on
severe weather specifics, so that will be hashed out in better
detail as the system approaches in time.
High temperatures will be in the lower 70s to lower 80s through
Monday with colder air filtering into the state on Tuesday and
Wednesday characterized by highs only in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
Low temperatures will moderate each morning going forward with lows
mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s through Monday morning. Lows
Tuesday and Wednesday mornings should be colder with readings
starting out in the upper 30s to upper 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Mid-level clouds continue to dissipate as they drift east this
morning. VFR conditions with S-SW winds expected through the
period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 67 45 73 54 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 69 44 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison AR 66 44 73 53 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs AR 68 44 75 54 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 68 46 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 67 45 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 69 45 75 54 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 66 44 74 53 / 0 0 0 0
Newport AR 66 43 73 54 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 66 44 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 69 44 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 66 40 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 65 45 73 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>056-062-063-066-067-103-
112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-
238-240-241-313-340-341.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...67