Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 210758
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
258 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

A slow moving upper level closed low is approaching the state from
the west early this morning...with some scattered SHRA and isolated
TSRA over central and portions of ERN OK. NE SFC flow continues over
AR...keeping moisture levels low so far...with dewpts in the 20s and
30s across the NERN half of AR...and 40s across the SW.

This NE SFC flow will keep the drier air over much of the CWA this
morning...keeping most of the precip at bay. However...moisture
levels will begin to increase across the W/SW...with some SHRA
possible across WRN sections of the CWA this morning. However...only
mention slight chance POPs through 18Z across the WRN counties as
coverage and likelihood are fairly limited.

Moisture levels really increase by this afternoon as the closed low
moves closer to AR...and SFC low pressure develops to the SW of AR.
This SFC low will lift slowly NE into far SRN AR by late
tonight...with SHRA becoming more widespread over a good portion of
the CWA. Given the limited instability expected...have only
mentioned isolated TSRA for now...with the primary hazards limited
to some locally heavy rain and a resulting isolated flash flood
threat. Rainfall amounts through early Sun morning will range from 1
to nearly 2 inches across the SWRN two-thirds/three-fourths of the
CWA. Lesser amounts are expected across the far north and east. If
any strong storms were to develop...the best chances will be across
SRN sections of the CWA late this afternoon and through
tonight...with the main threat being some small hail given the
elevated convective nature expected.

Scattered to numerous SHRA and a few isolated TSRA will remain
possible on Sun as the upper closed slow slowly rotates over the
region. The overall coverage of precip will gradually shift E/NE
over time as well...with additional rainfall amounts of one-half to
one inch across ERN sections of the CWA Sun into Sun night. Less
than one-half inch of additional precip is expected further west
Sun/Sun night. With the center of the upper closed slow shifting
east of the state by the end of the short term period...decrease
POPs significantly by Mon morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

Surface and upper systems will be moving away from the state Monday
and Monday night, with rain chances decreasing. Another cold front
will move through Tuesday night into Wednesday, and this will bring
another chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
follow this front, with another cold front expected toward the end
of the week. Through the period, temperatures will remain below
seasonal averages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  55  60  52 /  10  90  90  50
Camden AR         72  58  69  53 /  20 100  60  10
Harrison AR       64  51  59  48 /  30  90  80  40
Hot Springs AR    69  57  67  53 /  20  90  60  20
Little Rock   AR  70  58  67  54 /  10  90  80  30
Monticello AR     72  59  70  54 /  10  90  80  20
Mount Ida AR      67  53  66  51 /  30  90  50  20
Mountain Home AR  66  52  59  49 /  10  90  80  40
Newport AR        70  56  60  52 /  10  90  90  50
Pine Bluff AR     71  59  68  54 /  10  90  80  30
Russellville AR   68  56  65  52 /  30  90  60  30
Searcy AR         69  56  63  53 /  10  90  80  40
Stuttgart AR      70  59  66  55 /  10  90  80  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...62 / Long Term...57



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