Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 210534 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1234 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Primarily VFR conditions expected through the period. Some fog may
develop closer to daybreak at KHRO/KBPK which could reduce vsby
for a few hours. Elsewhere, fairly light winds and VFR ceilings
expected with isolated to scattered TS development Monday
afternoon and evening which could briefly impact area terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 937 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018)
UPDATE...

No significant changes to the forecast outside some adjustment to
PoPs and overnight temperatures. The unsettled and warm pattern
will continue through much of the upcoming week, with daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms in the warm and humid air
mass in place.

Cooper

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 642 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018)

AVIATION...

Scattered TS continue this afternoon, mainly across northern and
eastern AR. Some lingering TS expected overnight with TEMPO groups
handling minor restrictions in and near storms, but confidence in
timing and impacts is low. Through Monday, expect BKN to OVC
cumulus around 5 kft again, with scattered TS developing after
18Z. Did not carry VCTS mention for now given the low
predictability of this pattern. Did include FG overnight for KADF
based on a persistence forecast. Outside any TSRA, this should be
the only potential sub-VFR restriction through the period.

Cooper

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 108 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

An outflow boundary from early morning convection over MO has
dropped south into NRN portions of AR...which has recently triggered
some SHRA/TSRA along a line from near Marshall...east to near
Pocahontas and into SE MO. Additional SHRA is ongoing across NE TX
into ERN OK...but this activity has been weakening over time.

Temps have warmed into the upper 80s to low 90s across all but NWRN
sections of the state...which was north of the outflow boundary with
temps in the upper 70s to low 80s. Heat index values will warm into
the mid 90s...though some mixing has allowed for some drier air to
develop near the SFC. This will tend to limit how hot the heat index
values go for the rest of the afternoon.

The convective potential the rest of the afternoon and early evening
will be focused across NRN/NERN sections of the state near and ahead
of the aforementioned outflow boundary...and then later this
afternoon into the overnight period across WRN sections of the area
as a weak front progresses ESE into AR. This front may move as far
SE as SERN AR by sunrise Mon before becoming washed out. As a
result...this area of the state will see best POPs for Mon...though
some isolated convection may remain possible further NW.

By Mon night into Tue...the focus for precip will become less
defined as only some residual outflow boundaries and weak upper
disturbances will become the trigger for new convection. Even
so...thing some isolated to scattered afternoon convection will
remain possible on Tue afternoon. Given the increased cloud cover
and precip potential...expect heat index values to be lower in the
upper 80s to maybe as high as mid 90s for some isolated locations.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

All signs still point to a shift in the upper level flow, which
favors increasing rain chances and (maybe) a slight decrease in
temperatures.

At the surface, a frontal boundary or the remnants of it will be
near or over us by mid to late week. Disturbances moving through and
interacting with it will provide a focus for scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Toward the end of the period, models are actually pushing a cold
front into the region, which would increase rain chances further,
and decrease temperatures a little more.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...67



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