Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 201739 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1239 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 18Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Some scattered SHRA/TSRA will be possible through this afternoon
across NRN and NERN sections of the state...and across WRN
sections of AR. Through this afternoon...generally only the NRN
terminals will see this precip potential. Overnight...chances for
SHRA/TSRA will increase for terminals further south...but have
just mentioned VCTS at this time. A weak cold front will drop
south into the state overnight...with winds switching to the NW
for the central/NRN terminals...though winds will be light in
magnitude.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 300 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night

After much of the forecast area remained rain free yesterday,
similar conditions have persisted overnight with perhaps some
intrusion of showers and thunderstorms across western areas this
morning. A thunderstorm complex that developed near the Red River
region of TX/OK overnight persists this morning with widespread
lightning noted from eastern New Mexico to near the AR border.

Some scattered TS activity may be seen across far western areas this
morning, but stacked high pressure in place over and just east of
the state will help keep much of the activity at bay. This
afternoon, with daytime heating occurring and with residual
boundaries in place from AM storms, isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development will likely occur, mainly outside of
central and southern Arkansas. Another day of Summer like
temperatures is expected, particularly across the southeast half
of the state where heat index values could top out in the 95-100
degree range. Warm surface temperature will contribute to abundant
instability this afternoon and PWAT values of 1.5"+ indicate high
moisture content. Along with modest shear, storms that develop
this afternoon could provide a brief localized severe weather
threat.

High pressure will retreat further east by Monday with a weak front
making its way toward central Arkansas. Widespread thunderstorm
activity is expected nearly areawide Monday as disturbances continue
to pass over the area in the SW flow aloft.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

The extended forecast will be characterized with some chance of rain
each day, with temperatures remaining above to well above normal
values. A front may push through the region late in the extended to
the end of the weekend.

The pattern will have the surface high pressure to the east of AR,
and a south wind flow will keep moisture levels up through the
period. The upper pattern starts with some high pressure over the
region, but short wave energy is seen in the west flow and does move
through the region at times. This will develop convection each day,
especially in the afternoon to evening during the heat of the day.
Otherwise, it will be difficult to pine point exact location and
amount of the best convection chances, although, western to norther
AR will probably be a bit higher as the energy does move into the
region from the west. Over the weekend, models are showing a
possible cold front to move through AR, and this would be probably
the highest convection period.

Temperatures will generally remain above normal to some locations
well above normal, but will be dependent on cloud cover and
those areas that receive rain.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...62


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