Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 170205 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
905 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

.AVIATION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast across
central and eastern Arkansas overnight/Thursday. There will be areas
of fog overnight and low clouds in places. This will create MVFR
conditions. VFR conditions will return late Thursday morning, with
scattered cumulus between 3500 and 4500 feet and some high clouds
during the day. Winds will be light west/northwest overnight, and
north/northwest at 5 to 10 mph Thursday. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday...
Showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon, as a
mesoscale convective vortex has developed in eastern Oklahoma,
with another one south of that. These systems will move through
Arkansas this afternoon and tonight, with showers and
thunderstorms continuing.

Given the amount of instability present, some strong to briefly
severe thunderstorms are possible, with winds and marginally
severe hail the primary threats. With slow low level storm motion,
and high precipitable water, stronger storms will also have the
capability to produce localized heavy rainfall.

Showers/storms from the systems this evening will shift
southeastward along a remnant frontal boundary later tonight.
Additional development will be possible on Thursday, as upper
level troughing elongates over the mid south region. Again, we
could see some marginally strong storms.

By Friday, upper ridging will build back into the region, with
rain chances decreasing.
&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
An upper level ridge axis will be shifting east over the state at
the start of the long term period. This will keep precip chances
limited for Sat...though a weak upper disturbance looks to still try
to generate some isolated convection for Sat afternoon.
Otherwise...expect highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s Sat afternoon.
The ridge will drop SE over time by Sun...with more of a SW flow
aloft developing by late Sun. This will allow for a bit cooler
conditions for Sun...and maybe a better chance for some isolated
afternoon convection.

Better precip chances will arrive early next week as there will be
even less influence from upper level ridging...and with some
additional weak disturbances moving over the region as the flow
aloft becomes more zonal. Temps will cool off slightly as a
result...and best rain chances will be on Mon and Tue. Even
so...keep only chance POPs mentioned. Have decreasing POPs by the
end of the forecast...mainly for increased uncertainty that far out
in time...but also as the flow transitions to a more NW direction.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     66  82  63  86 /  30  30  10  30
Camden AR         65  87  66  91 /  40  20  20  20
Harrison AR       62  79  60  83 /  20  20  10  40
Hot Springs AR    65  86  66  89 /  40  30  10  30
Little Rock   AR  67  86  66  89 /  40  30  10  30
Monticello AR     69  87  68  91 /  40  30  20  30
Mount Ida AR      62  85  64  88 /  30  30  10  30
Mountain Home AR  64  80  59  85 /  20  20  10  30
Newport AR        68  82  65  87 /  30  40  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     68  87  67  90 /  40  30  20  30
Russellville AR   66  84  64  86 /  30  30  10  40
Searcy AR         66  83  64  88 /  30  30  10  30
Stuttgart AR      70  86  67  89 /  40  30  10  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...57 / Long Term...62



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