Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 191736
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1236 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.AVIATION...
High pressure continues to be in control of the area. Mostly clear
skies will continue this afternoon and overnight. North and
northwest winds will continue to gust to around 20kts through the
afternoon. Winds will become light by mid evening. East winds are
expected Friday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 625 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018)
DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions should be dominant through this TAF period. Some
occasional elevated winds will be seen through early this
afternoon...then become more light and variable.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 242 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

NRLY winds continue early this morning in wake of the cold front
that pushed through the state on Wed. Winds should be gradually
decreasing in intensity throughout this Thu as the pressure gradient
relaxes over time. Even so...some gusts nearing 20 kts may still be
seen...especially over the SRN half of the CWA through early this
afternoon. The dry air mass will remain over the area...but should
seen lower temps for highs. This will keep the RH values from
bottoming out as far as Wed afternoon...with min RH values remaining
in the 30 and 40 percent range. Even so...do think an elevated wild
fire threat will remain due to dewpts in the 20s and 30s.

SFC high pressure will remain north of the state overnight...but
will slide to the NE of the region by Fri afternoon. This will keep
a NE to ERLY flow for the area...and will result in below normal
temps once again. Precip chances will also remain limited. This E/NE
flow will persist into Fri night...though a storm system to the SW
will begin approaching by the end of the short term period. Have
only some slight chance POPs late Fri night for WRN sections of the
area...mainly for some isolated SHRA or even just some sprinkles as
moisture levels being to increase in that region of the state.
Better chances for rain come early in the long term period.

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

At the beginning of the period, surface low pressure will be passing
south of Arkansas. Showers should be fairly widespread, as uplift
into the region will be pretty significant. However, with the over
all lack of instability, it looks like we would see mainly isolated
thunderstorms. At this point, the threat of severe weather is low.

With a closed upper low moving across Arkansas behind the surface
low, showers/isolated storms will continue into Sunday. Rain chances
will decrease late Sunday into Monday, as surface high pressure
moves in, and the upper low gradually elongates and dampens out to
the east of the region.

By mid-week, another cold front will approach the region, with rain
chances increasing again.

Throughout the period, temperatures will be below seasonal
averages.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...51


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