Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 230230 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
930 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.Discussion...

Overall forecast on track. The upper and surface low pressure
systems continue to gradually move east, while rotating an area of
light rain and showers over AR. Rain amounts and coverage have been
low. Forecast will keep a slight to low chance of rain overnight.
Winds will gradually become north to northwest behind the surface
low as it moves east. The overcast clouds and some patch fog will
hold much of the night, before thinning on Monday as a drier airmass
filters into AR with the northwest winds. Lows tonight will be in
the 50s. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 640 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018/
.Aviation...

Overall VFR ceilings will be seen tonight with areas of MVFR being
seen. Light showers will also be noted over mainly northern and
eastern AR and isolated IFR conditions may be seen tonight and on
Monday as the weather system moves slowly east. Also toward Monday
morning, patchy areas of fog with IFR conditions will be possible
and reducing visibilities. Winds will be northeast to northwest at 5
to 15 mph. Later tonight and on Monday, winds will become more north
to northwest at 5 to 15 mph with some gusts to around 20 mph.
Ceilings on Monday will start mostly MVFR then gradually become VFR
later in the day. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 245 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018/
.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday

Showers will continue across the forecast area as the upper level
low progresses eastward towards the Mississippi River Valley.
Current water vapor imagery shows this feature passing through
the Natural State, which will keep chances of rain in the
forecast through the overnight and early Monday morning hours.
Wrap around moisture from the storm system will mainly impact the
eastern and northeastern portions of the state, therefore highest
chances reside across those locations. Additionally, as the storm
system moves through the region, elevated wind speeds between 10
and 15 mph with higher gusts up to 20 mph are possible.

A few stray showers could be seen on Monday, although only slight
chances are forecast, as the main forcing from the storm system
moves further east. Otherwise, dry weather is expected on Tuesday as
northwest flow and high pressure build back into the area. Mild
temperatures will persist through mid week with high in the 60s
and 70s, and lows in the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday

An area of low pressure will be over the Plains and east coast to
begin the long term period. The upper low in the Plains moves
eastward Wednesday and through Arkansas Thursday. High pressure
builds over the Rockies Wednesday through Friday, and will be over
the mid south next weekend.

A cold front will move through Arkansas Tuesday night and Wednesday
with good chances of showers with isolated thunderstorms. High
pressure builds into the area late Wednesday night. Another cold
front will move through the state Friday and a bring a slight chance
of showers. Next weekend could actually be dry with high pressure
in place. Temperatures will be below normal through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     59  55  64  52 /  90  40  20  10
Camden AR         66  52  72  52 /  20  10  10  10
Harrison AR       57  51  62  48 /  90  50  20  10
Hot Springs AR    64  53  70  52 /  30  10  10  10
Little Rock   AR  66  55  68  53 /  50  20  20  10
Monticello AR     68  53  67  54 /  40  10  20  10
Mount Ida AR      61  52  69  51 /  30  10  10  10
Mountain Home AR  58  52  63  49 /  90  50  20  10
Newport AR        60  55  64  54 /  90  40  30  10
Pine Bluff AR     68  54  68  53 /  40  20  20  10
Russellville AR   62  54  68  50 /  70  20  10  10
Searcy AR         64  54  66  52 /  80  30  20  10
Stuttgart AR      67  55  66  54 /  70  20  20  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...CROSS / Long Term...51


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