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000
FXUS64 KLZK 132032
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
332 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday
Overall forecast philosophy remains constant during this short
period. Conditions for well organized convection are indicated by
18z KLZK sounding. Still a question remains how quickly convection
will grow upscale to a more linear mode.

Heavy convection is expected to clear southeast sections by 14/14z

Text &&

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Friday

 The biggest concern in
the long term periods will be near-freezing temperatures Sunday
and Monday morning.

Closed upper low will follow the surface system departing on
Saturday night, with the primary track north of the region. Cloud
cover associated with the system will pass through northern
Arkansas, with clearing over the remainder of the area.

With much colder air moving into the region, temperatures will fall
into the 30s in most areas, and we could see readings close to
freezing in the northwest and portions of the west by Sunday
morning. However, the clouds remaining in the north should preclude
a hard freeze.

Surface high pressure will move into the region on Sunday, with
clouds clearing out. Freezing/near-freezing temperatures will be a
little more widespread on Sunday night/Monday morning, with a freeze
most likely in the west and north. Some portions of the northwest
(particularly the usual sheltered valley areas) could see
temperatures in the 20s.

The high will shift eastward Monday into Tuesday, with winds coming
around to the south, and temperatures warming back into the 70s to
around 80 degrees.

Around mid-week, a weaker front will move through the region,
yielding little more than slight rain chances and a slight increase
in cloud cover. There will be slight cooling behind this front.

Toward the end of the week, there will be another system approaching
the area, bringing another chance for rainfall. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     60  68  38  53 / 100  50  10  10
Camden AR         57  66  38  58 / 100  50  10   0
Harrison AR       47  57  31  47 /  60  10  10  10
Hot Springs AR    54  61  36  55 / 100  30  10   0
Little Rock   AR  58  65  38  55 / 100  40  10   0
Monticello AR     62  68  40  56 / 100  60  10   0
Mount Ida AR      50  60  34  54 /  90  20   0   0
Mountain Home AR  52  61  32  48 /  80  20  10  10
Newport AR        61  68  40  53 / 100  50  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     61  66  39  55 /  90  50  10   0
Russellville AR   51  60  36  54 /  90  20  10  10
Searcy AR         59  66  38  55 /  90  50  10  10
Stuttgart AR      61  67  41  55 / 100  60  10   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Desha-
Drew-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-Lincoln-Lonoke-Monroe-
Prairie-White-Woodruff.


Flash Flood Watch through late tonight FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Desha-Drew-Lincoln-Monroe.

&&

$$

Short Term...99 / Long Term...57