528
FXUS64 KLZK 061726 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1226 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were diminishing in
coverage across Ern AR early this morning. In the wake of this
precipitation, skies were clearing out, leading to the formation
of fog and areas of dense fog. A Dense Fog Advisory is now in
place through 9AM for a large portion of the CWA except for far
E/NE/SE counties. Visibilities were reduced the greatest amount
over much of Wrn AR into Cntrl AR. Remember to allow extra time to
reach your destination if you must travel in these locations.

Today, fog will dissipate during the mid morning hours (thinking 9-
10am) giving way to partly to mostly cloudy skies during the
afternoon. A few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could
develop over mainly Wrn AR during the peak heating hours of the
afternoon, otherwise today will serve as a short reprieve from
widespread precipitation. Highs this afternoon should range from
the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Tonight, a weak upper level disturbance, located just to the N and W
of AR, will pass through synoptic SWrly flow. This should trigger a
squall line of thunderstorms to the W of AR, then this complex
will move across portions of Nrn AR. Rain chances will linger into
Tuesday morning until the shortwave energy moves off the N and E.
The main thunderstorm hazard with the line of thunderstorms
locally would be isolated instances of damaging winds and
marginally severe hail. This line of thunderstorms is expected to
be decreasing in intensity as it moves across Nrn AR. Highs on
Tuesday should climb into the mid and upper 80s. An unsettled
weather pattern will continue into late Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The extended period will start off with a large storm system
wobbling from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest on
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Surface low pressure will form in the
southern Plains and track toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. The
system will drag a cold front into Arkansas.

Ahead of the front, well above normal temperatures are in the
forecast. Afternoon CAPE values from 3000 to 4000+ J/kg seem
reasonable. There will be moderate values of shear, although wind
energy will be more appreciable across the mid-Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys. Given the setup, explosive storm development is expected
during the afternoon/evening hours. Storms that become severe will
be capable of producing very large hail, damaging wind, and there
could be isolated tornadoes as well. Precipitable water between 1.5
and 2.0 inches will yield heavy downpours, and the potential of at
least localized flash flooding.

The front will be in central/southern Arkansas on Thursday, so
hit/miss showers and rumbles of thunder will linger in areas from
Little Rock southward. As the big system to the north wobbles to the
east, the flow aloft will become northwest, and this will drive the
front toward the Gulf Coast. Cooler/drier and more seasonal air will
follow the front, and this will be realized Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

A mix of MVFR/VFR cigs remain in place with most locations
expected to see VFR conditions over the course of the afternoon.
Srly winds will be in place through the afternoon, with some
occasional gusts to around 15 kts. Isolated to scattered
showers/storms are expected to develop across SW AR through the
afternoon hours and lift north. Limited coverage is expected with
most terminals remaining dry, activity should diminish by 07/02z.


A N-S oriented line of severe storms is expected to move into NW
Arkansas after 07/06z and continue to march east, impacting areas
generally north of I-40. This means KHRO/KBPK will be most likely
to see very strong wind gusts and severely reduced cigs/vsby as
storms impact those terminals Tue morning (08z-13z). Confidence
in TS activity is lower to the south with KHOT/KLIT on the edge
of where storms are expected as they move east through Tue
morning.

Cigs will likely drop to MVFR or lower areawide overnight through
the rest of the period with wind shear expected after 07/06z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  86  67  85 /  50  20  10  60
Camden AR         68  86  68  88 /  30   0  10  30
Harrison AR       64  83  61  82 /  70  10  10  70
Hot Springs AR    67  86  66  87 /  30  10  10  40
Little Rock   AR  71  87  69  87 /  40  10  10  40
Monticello AR     71  87  70  89 /  10  10  10  20
Mount Ida AR      66  86  66  85 /  40  10  10  50
Mountain Home AR  66  84  61  85 /  60  10  10  70
Newport AR        70  85  69  87 /  40  10  10  50
Pine Bluff AR     70  86  70  88 /  30  10  10  30
Russellville AR   67  87  66  85 /  50  10  10  50
Searcy AR         68  85  66  86 /  40  10  10  50
Stuttgart AR      71  85  71  87 /  30  20  10  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...67