262
FXUS64 KLZK 030549
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1249 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Data from KLZK radar indicate scattered areas of precipitation
moving northeast across the forecast area, with a few convective
cells with lightning affecting the delta region of the state. This
activity is promoted by short wavelength energy approaching the
state.

This activity will continue through most of the overnight hours,
with the greatest coverage of precipitation expected across extreme
eastern sections of the forecast area.

Will have several quick moving fronts approach and affect the
forecast area during the rest of the forecast period.
Climatologically, it is an uncommon instance that a front
approaching the forecast area would not support severe
thunderstorm formation. At this time, however, a review of
forecast fields indicate that those values are not in the
parameter space that favors severe thunderstorm formation.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Not many appreciable changes have been made to the forecast/grids
this afternoon as new guidance remains in relatively good agreement
with current thinking that our sensible weather will initially be
unsettled. Any differences were blended together with consensus
between models seeming to be the best way to go.

Period initiates with upper troughing over the upper midwest and a
sprawling upper low /trough sitting off the Oregon coast. On the
surface, a cold front will be sitting over northwest Arkansas where
it will remain through late Sunday. Upper wave kicking out of the
main trough will interact with the boundary as it starts to move to
the north as a warm front Sunday, resulting in a broad area of
showers and thunderstorms with the highest QPF over the northwest
portion of the state.

Aforementioned western system will lift out early next week and move
into the northern high plains. Warm front will lift to the north of
the area allowing temperatures to rise to well above seasonal
averages. As the system moves into the northern plains, another cold
front will be approaching as the parent low occludes out.

This front will likely remain to the north and west of the state and
while precipitation chances will decrease, they will not entirely go
away. The highest chances of precipitation from Tuesday onward will
be across the north and west, closer to that front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A variety of CIGs are expected overnight ranging from VFR to IFR.
Low stratus is anticipated to become more widespread heading
through the overnight period as a weak system moves towards the
region. Some PoPs are expected on Fri, however confidence in
placement and timing remain low owing to the system being weak.
Conds should improve to mainly VFR late in the period but SHRA may
linger over Srn sites, on and off, through much of the period.
Winds will be light out of the S/SE at 10 knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     79  63  82  64 /  30  20  60  30
Camden AR         79  63  82  64 /  70  30  40  20
Harrison AR       76  61  78  59 /  30  20  70  30
Hot Springs AR    80  64  81  64 /  70  20  50  30
Little Rock   AR  80  65  84  67 /  60  30  50  30
Monticello AR     78  64  84  67 /  70  30  40  20
Mount Ida AR      79  63  80  64 /  60  20  60  40
Mountain Home AR  78  62  80  60 /  30  10  60  30
Newport AR        79  64  84  64 /  30  20  50  20
Pine Bluff AR     79  64  83  66 /  70  30  40  30
Russellville AR   81  64  81  64 /  50  20  60  30
Searcy AR         79  63  83  64 /  50  20  50  30
Stuttgart AR      79  65  84  67 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...70