Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 261114 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.AVIATION...26/12Z Forecast Cycle
Except for some patchy fog and IFR stratus early this morning, VFR
conditions are expected through the period. A few showers are
possible in the north and east. Winds will be around six knots or
less.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 322 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Warm and humid airmass will remain over the region in the short
term. Expect some morning fog, which will scatter out after
sunrise. Daytime heating will interact with mesoscale boundaries,
which will touch off isolated/widely scattered diurnally-driven
showers and thunderstorms.

As the center of "Alberto" moves toward the coast, surface flow
will become more easterly/northeasterly, with rain chances
decreasing on Sunday as slightly drier air is drawn into
Arkansas.

Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages.

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday
Latest med-range model guidance and NHC forecasts are showing
Subtropical Storm Alberto moving onshore early in the long term
period somewhere along the Gulf Coasts of ERN LA to the WRN
Panhandle of FL. An elongated upper ridge will be located to the
west of AR...stretching form NRN Mexico into the mid MS River Valley
region at this same time. Given this setup...looks like most of the
impacts of Alberto will remain east of AR as it moves further inland
Tue into Wed of next week. However...the remnants of Alberto may get
close enough to have increased POPs...mainly for ERN sections of the
state through Wed. During this period...expect warmest temps across
WRN sections of the CWA closer to the upper ridge...with lower temps
as a result of precip potential and cloud cover further east.

Beyond Wed...expect the remnants of Alberto to exit the region to the
NW...with the upper ridge to the west expanding some further east
over AR. This will result in a further decrease in precip
potential...and increased temps. In fact...we may see some of the
warmest temps of the year so far by late next week...with highs by
Thu and Fri in the 90s to maybe around 100. Heat index values will
then become the main story...with heat index values rising into the
mid 90s to just over 100.

FIRE WEATHER...
No significant fire weather issues are expected over the next
seven days.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...57


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