000
FXUS64 KLZK 210516 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1216 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Latest views of regional radar data indicate a continuous area of
rainfall with some thunderstorms, extending from western north Texas
to western Mississippi. Precipitation is supported by southerly to
southwesterly upglide flow in the 808 to 700 hpa layer.

The upper flow pattern over the U.S. will undergo some amplification
during this period.  A sharpening upper trough  will approach the mid
south from the central plains tonight.  This feature will promote
additional precipitation this evening, before all precipitation ends
by mid morning Sunday.

The trough will support the transport of a cooler and drier air mass
to the mid south on Sunday.  Some areas of frost are expected to
form across northern sections of the state Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Guidance is not showing any major differences this afternoon in the
extended period and as such, no value added changes will be forth
coming. Biggest difference remains the timing of a cold front coming
in late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Model differences remain between
the GFS and EURO and a blend of forecast solutions seems prudent.

Period initiates with broad northwest flow in place and surface high
pressure located over the southeast CONUS. Monday night is still
looking a little on the chilly side but temperatures warm up quickly
on Tuesday, reaching the 70s across the forecast area. Meanwhile,
low pressure moving along the northern tier of the nation will drag
a cold front to the Arkansas/Missouri border by the end of the day.

Biggest question this period remains where this cold front ends up
with guidance continuing to offer different solutions. GFS solution
brings the front into southern Arkansas before stalling it out with
the ECMWF slower and not quite as far south as its GFS counterpart.
However, models do remain consistent with an upper impulse coming in
for Wednesday but only low end precip chances are warranted at this
time.

Aforementioned boundary does lift to the north as a warm front later
in the week as upper level low pressure moves from the four corners
and into the central plains on Friday, before moving moving well to
the northeast of the FA by the end of the period. With the front
moving to the north and increasing moisture and lift, precipitation
chances will continue. Temperatures are expected to be well into the
80s by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Mainly VFR conds are expected overnight although there could be
some spotty MVFR/IFR CIGs over Srn AR. SHRA will continue over
central/southern AR as an upper level passes to the S of the
state. Activity should come to an end around 12-13z Sun with
skies clearing from NW to SE through the afternoon. Winds will be
N/NErly at 10 to 20 kts on Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     64  40  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         65  40  70  44 /  10   0   0   0
Harrison AR       61  37  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    65  40  69  45 /  10   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  66  43  71  48 /  10   0   0   0
Monticello AR     65  42  70  46 /  20   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      65  38  70  46 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  63  36  70  46 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        64  40  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     64  41  69  45 /  20   0   0   0
Russellville AR   66  40  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         64  39  69  44 /  10   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      63  42  67  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...67