Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 220903
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
403 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A storm system aloft arriving from the southern Plains
will spread showers/isolated thunderstorms across central
and southern Arkansas today. Rainfall totals will mostly range
from a tenth to a half inch. Farther north, spotty showers will
yield nothing to a few hundredths of an inch.

Precipitation will exit to the east tonight, and will be followed
closely by a cold front from the north. The wind will shift from
east/northeast to north/northwest, and there will be a noticable
increase in wind speed. Gusts from 20 to 30 mph will be common.

Breezy conditions will continue on Saturday, especially in the
morning. The wind will become less gusty in the afternoon as
high pressure builds into the region behind the front. There will
be more sunshine on Saturday than today.

As far as temperatures, readings will be above average across
the northern/central counties, and below average in the south
given clouds/rain. Seasonal readings are in the forecast
on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Dry conditions will be seen to start off the long term period as
upper level ridging will be moving east over the region.
However...chances for convection will return to the forecast late
Sun afternoon across WRN sections...but primarily on Mon into early
Tue as a strong storm system moves through the region.

An upper shortwave will lift NE over the central Plains north of AR
Sun night into Mon...with a cold front moving ESE towards AR. SW
flow aloft will increase over AR...with deep moisture levels
increasing for the daytime hrs on Mon. SHRA/TSRA will become likely
by midday and especially mid afternoon on Mon as another upper
shortwave to the SW of AR moves NE towards the state. Expect
widespread convection by late Mon afternoon across central to SERN
AR ahead of this slowing cold front...which will eventually slowly
move east of the state by midday Tue as that 2nd upper shortwave
moves over AR. POPs will decrease as a result from NW to SE by early
Tue...with dry conditions expected for the rest of the forecast.

Looks like the potential for seeing strong to SVR storms may be
increasing a bit as the cold front has slowed. This is giving some
more time for afternoon heating for the SERN half of AR on
Mon...which looks to bring a bit more instability that earlier data
had suggested. However...instability continues to be a limiting
factor at this time. Other SVR parameters still look favorable for
seeing at least some potential for a few SVR storms. This setup may
also bring some areas of heavy rainfall to the SERN half of the
state as well given how the progression of the cold front is slower
than earlier data suggested. This will provide for more time for
heavy rainfall to occur as the overall push of convection east will
be slower. In any case...there are still several days left to refine
the forecast for Mon afternoon/evening...and many adjustments to the
overall potential for SVR Wx and heavy rain are likely over time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

VFR conditions will hold across northern Arkansas through the
period. Farther south, clouds will thicken/lower on Friday with
rain/isolated thunderstorms becoming widespread. As this happens,
MVFR conditions will develop. Precipitation will exit to the east
Friday night, and VFR conditions will return in most areas. The
wind will be east/northeast at 4 to 8 knots on Friday, shifting to
the north/northwest and becoming gusty Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  42  60  39 /  30   0   0   0
Camden AR         61  46  65  42 /  80  20   0   0
Harrison AR       68  36  59  40 /  20  20   0   0
Hot Springs AR    65  45  65  42 /  60  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  67  46  64  42 /  60  10   0   0
Monticello AR     60  47  62  43 /  80  20   0   0
Mount Ida AR      66  44  66  42 /  60  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  70  37  60  39 /  20  20   0   0
Newport AR        68  41  59  39 /  40  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     61  45  61  40 /  70  10   0   0
Russellville AR   70  43  65  41 /  50  10   0   0
Searcy AR         67  42  61  38 /  50  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      62  44  60  40 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...46


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