134
FXUS64 KLZK 021958
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
258 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Data from KLZK radar indicate scattered areas of precipitation
moving northeast across the forecast area, with a few convective
cells with lightning affecting the delta region of the state. This
activity is promoted by short wavelength energy approaching the
state.

This activity will continue through most of the overnight hours,
with the greatest coverage of precipitation expected across extreme
eastern sections of the forecast area.

Will have several quick moving fronts approach and affect the
forecast area during the rest of the forecast period.
Climatologically, it is an uncommon instance that a front
approaching the forecast area would not support severe
thunderstorm formation. At this time, however, a review of
forecast fields indicate that those values are not in the
parameter space that favors severe thunderstorm formation.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Not many appreciable changes have been made to the forecast/grids
this afternoon as new guidance remains in relatively good agreement
with current thinking that our sensible weather will initially be
unsettled. Any differences were blended together with consensus
between models seeming to be the best way to go.

Period initiates with upper troughing over the upper midwest and a
sprawling upper low /trough sitting off the Oregon coast. On the
surface, a cold front will be sitting over northwest Arkansas where
it will remain through late Sunday. Upper wave kicking out of the
main trough will interact with the boundary as it starts to move to
the north as a warm front Sunday, resulting in a broad area of
showers and thunderstorms with the highest QPF over the northwest
portion of the state.

Aforementioned western system will lift out early next week and move
into the northern high plains. Warm front will lift to the north of
the area allowing temperatures to rise to well above seasonal
averages. As the system moves into the northern plains, another cold
front will be approaching as the parent low occludes out.

This front will likely remain to the north and west of the state and
while precipitation chances will decrease, they will not entirely go
away. The highest chances of precipitation from Tuesday onward will
be across the north and west, closer to that front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Precipitation forecasts will reflect expected continued decaying
of current precipitation shield, as indicated by KLZK radar. MVFR
conditions are expected to prevail during this forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     63  80  63  83 /  70  50  20  60
Camden AR         65  81  63  84 /  60  70  30  40
Harrison AR       60  77  59  79 /  50  30  10  60
Hot Springs AR    64  81  63  82 /  60  50  30  50
Little Rock   AR  66  81  67  84 /  60  50  30  50
Monticello AR     67  80  65  84 /  60  80  40  40
Mount Ida AR      62  81  62  82 /  50  50  30  60
Mountain Home AR  60  79  61  81 /  60  30  10  60
Newport AR        65  80  64  82 /  90  50  20  50
Pine Bluff AR     66  80  65  83 /  60  60  40  50
Russellville AR   62  81  62  82 /  50  30  20  50
Searcy AR         64  80  63  82 /  70  50  30  50
Stuttgart AR      67  80  66  82 /  60  60  40  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....57
AVIATION...55