Text Products for FWS Issued by MHX

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6

000
FNUS72 KMHX 241304
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for Ladd Burn...North Carolina Forest Service
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
904 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front with limited moisture will approach the area today
and cross the region late tonight. Predominantly SW winds through
mid afternoon will become variable late this afternoon and evening
as a prefrontal trough pushes through the area. A few showers are
possible late this afternoon and evening but chances of a wetting
rain is low. High pressure builds back into the area from the north
on Thursday and eventually slides offshore this weekend.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Isolated showers late in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 12 mph with gusts to
                    around 18 mph, becoming light and variable late.
Mixing Height.......Max 4800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 23 mph decreasing to around 13 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 77165 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 2.
ADI.................Max 84.
Stability class.....2.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.00 to 30.06 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........26  22  24  27  28  31  49  66
Weather cov.....                            ISO
Weather type....                            RW
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............65  69  71  73  74  74  73  71
RH..............58  51  47  44  44  46  49  55
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..11  10  10  10  9   8   6   5
20 FT wind gust.18  18  18  18  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 2.3 3.1 3.9 4.4 4.8 4.0 0.9
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.23  21  21  20  16  15  15  13
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2
ADI.............55  57  68  72  84  83  71  16
Haines index....5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.45  48  65  77  71  72  59  12
Sfc pres (in)...006 006 005 004 002 001 000 000

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
                    Scattered rain showers early in the evening.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming variable around
                    3 to 6 mph overnight.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 12 mph becoming variable 6 to
                    8 mph overnight.
Vent Rate...........Min 2185 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Min 3.
Stability class.....4.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.01 to 30.09 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........68  56  51  44  35  33  29  26  23  21  22  26
Weather cov.....SCT SCT
Weather type....RW  RW
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............69  67  65  64  62  61  60  60  59  58  57  56
RH..............61  65  70  73  81  84  87  87  90  90  93  93
20 FT wind dir..W   W   NW  W   W   SW  W   W   NW  NW  N   N
20 FT wind spd..4   4   4   3   3   3   3   4   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   NW  N   SE  S   SW  SW  SW  W   NW  N   N
Transp wind spd.12  8   6   8   8   7   7   7   8   6   6   7
LVORI...........2   3   3   3   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6
ADI.............14  5   4   4   4   3   3   3   4   3   3   3
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.11  7   3   4   3   3   3   3   4   2   2   3
Sfc pres (in)...001 003 005 006 008 009 009 008 008 008 008 009

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 13 mph with gusts to around
                    18 mph.
Mixing Height.......Max 3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast 18
                    to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 51749 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Max 56.
Stability class.....3.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.11 to 30.21 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........28     34     28     27     30     40
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............56     59     64     67     67     65
RH..............93     87     70     59     56     58
20 ft wind......N 5    N 6    NE 9   NE 11  NE 11  NE 12
20 ft wind gust.              14     18     18     18
Mix hgt (ft)....400    600    2200   2900   3000   2500
Transport wind..N 8    N 9    N 15   N 15   NE 17  NE 20
LVORI...........6      5      3      1      1      1
ADI.............4      10     42     47     55     55
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.3      6      33     43     52     48
Sfc pres (in)...30.11  30.15  30.19  30.20  30.20  30.20

$$
Forecaster...Kennedy
Requested by...Kevin Simpson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412224.0/MHX
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kevin.simpson@ncagr.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
