Text Products for FWS Issued by MHX

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
000
FNUS72 KMHX 140906
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for HD...USMC
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
506 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on April 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...

The combination of a persistent dry airmass and warm temps will
bring the potential for RH values to reach critical levels as low
as 20% this afternoon. Strengthening SW winds with gusts 20 to 25
mph combined with the dry conditions will lead to the development
of elevated fire danger conditions across most of Eastern NC
through this evening.

High pressure will shift off the SE coast today. Tomorrow, a
cold front will move into the region from the north late in the
day and stall, eventually lifting back north as a warm front on
Tuesday. High pressure ridging briefly builds back into the
Southeast around midweek before the next cold front impacts the
area late next week.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light, then becoming south 6 to 13 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 8 mph shifting to the southwest 5 to
                    14 mph late in the morning, then shifting to
                    the south 15 to 16 mph late in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 37490 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 4.
ADI.................Max 47.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........0   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   2   2   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............50  52  58  65  72  75  76  77  77  75  75
RH..............83  77  64  50  38  31  29  28  25  27  32
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  W   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   4   4   3   3   5   7   9   11  12  12
20 FT wind gust.    5   5   5   5       9   14  14  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 2.1 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.5 1.6 1.4
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   6   5   5   5   7   9   13  14  15  16
LVORI...........4   4   3   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   2
ADI.............8   6   4   6   13  25  33  47  39  31  29
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.3   2   2   4   10  19  27  37  34  24  23

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 13 mph.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 5979 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 4.
ADI.................Min 10.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........2   4   4   7   11  14  13  11  10  8   4   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............72  69  66  64  63  62  61  60  59  58  58  58
RH..............41  49  56  63  67  70  72  75  78  80  80  80
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..12  11  10  11  11  12  12  11  11  11  10  10
20 FT wind gust.18  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW  S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.15  14  15  15  17  17  18  18  17  17  16  16
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4
ADI.............11  12  10  13  15  15  16  16  15  15  11  11
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.11  6   7   6   8   7   8   9   9   8   8   8

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing Height.......Max 3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 16 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 40365 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 4.
ADI.................Max 42.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........4      1      4      4      3      12
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............58     62     70     78     82     81
RH..............80     72     59     48     44     46
20 ft wind......SW 10  SW 6   W 8    SW 9   S 10   S 11
20 ft wind gust.14     9      14     14     14     18
Mix hgt (ft)....500    500    1400   2900   3200   2000
Transport wind..SW 15  W 15   W 13   W 12   SW 13  SW 15
LVORI...........4      3      2      1      1      1
ADI.............10     16     24     41     42     37
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.7      8      18     33     40     29

$$
Forecaster...Kearns
Requested by...J Cumbo
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410682.0/MHX
.DELDT 04/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL joshua.cumbo@usmc.mil
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
