Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
933 FXUS62 KMLB 041949 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 349 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 ...Increasing Heat Next Week With Highs Reaching Well Into the 90s Over the Interior... Current-Sunday... The KMLB WSR-88D radar shows scattered showers ongoing this afternoon, mainly west of I-95, as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland. The first lightning strike of the day across east central Florida happened just before 3 PM across central Osceola county. Easterly winds have increased to 10-15 mph behind the sea breeze with gusts around 20 mph possible. Additional showers and storms are expected to form as the sea breeze continues to push inland. The greatest potential for showers and storms later this afternoon and into this evening will be across the western interior (PoP 30 percent) where the sea breeze collision is forecast to occur. Main storm threats will be occasional to frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. Isolated showers will continue to develop over the Atlantic waters this afternoon, with some showers possibly making it to the coast. Afternoon highs today will be in the low to mid 80s along the coast and upper 80s to low 90s across the interior. Shower and storm activity across the land areas today will begin to dissipate into the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the overnight hours, with isolated showers possible across the coast with the onshore flow. Winds will become light and variable overnight with partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s, to possibly near 70 degrees along the coast. High pressure will continue to dominate the region, with the east coast sea breeze forecast to form once again on Sunday. Adequate moisture coupled with shortwave energy traversing through the area will support isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms to form along the sea breeze once again as it pushes inland in the afternoon. The greatest potential for convection to form will be west of I-95, with the highest rain chances (PoP 30-40 percent) occurring across much of the area in the afternoon, and especially across the western interior where the sea breeze collision is forecast to occur. Much like today, the main storm threats will be occasional to frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. Onshore winds will increase to 8-12 mph behind the sea breeze, with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s along the coast and upper 80s to low 90s across the interior under mostly to partly sunny skies. Sun Night-Mon Night...Shortwave high pressure ridging aligns across the FL peninsula thru early Mon, then pushes seaward ahead of approaching weak shortwave troughing. At the surface, high pressure ridging across north-central FL drops further south into central FL. There will be a late day/early evening (east-west) sea breeze collision Sun-Mon, likely just west of the Kissimmee River up thru Lake County. Most convection likely west of our coverage warning area, but could see some activity across Lake County Sun evening. Otherwise, some ISOLD-WDLY SCT convection across the local coastal waters (mainly Gulf Stream) each night/morning. An ISOLD threat will exist in the morning/early afternoon on Mon along the coast as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland (10-20pct). There will be some notably drier air (esp south) across the area on Mon compared with Sun and overall PoPs will be lower. Highs ranging in the M80s along the coast and U80s to L90s into the interior. Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified... Tue-Sat...A mid-level (500 mb) ridge builds over the FL peninsula and the resulting subsidence will increase the hot and dry conditions. Temperatures warming through the period reaching the M90s as early as Tue/Wed across the interior becoming widespread M90s (perhaps a few U90s) into Fri. Along the immediate coast (barrier islands), daily sea breezes will hold max temps to the M80s Tue, then U80s Wed-Fri. But inland portions of the coastal counties (west of I-95) will reach the L90s. Fri continues to look like the hottest day as the ridge axis slips farther south and offshore (SW) flow dominates with a much delayed sea breeze. This should allow max temps to reach the L90s even at the coast with widespread M90s mainland. Only slightly cooler on Sat, with L90s I-4 corridor and L-M90s southward. Although dewpoints and humidities will not be oppressive due to drier air, wet bulb globe temps indicate a Moderate to High heat risk. Consistent overnight mins in the 60s with some occasional L70s possible. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Ongoing showers and isolated lightning storms this afternoon, mainly across the interior as the sea breeze pushes inland. Have included VCSH for all inland terminals this afternoon. Have not included TEMPOs at this time due to uncertainty in timing and coverage, but will amend as necessary. Easterly winds around 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT possible this afternoon. Winds will decrease to around 5 KT overnight before increasing once again to 8-12 KT by mid morning. Showers and storms will once again form along the east coast sea breeze on Sunday, with onshore moving showers possible across the coast in the morning, mainly from MLB northward. VCSH starting at 15/16Z for MCO- SFB and MLB-DAB. Included VCTS starting at 19Z at MCO, and will likely add VCTS to the other interior sites with next TAF package. && .MARINE... Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Current-Sunday Showers are ongoing across the Atlantic this afternoon, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward. Favorable boating conditions will continue into Sunday as high pressure remains in place. Onshore flow will persist, with speeds generally around 10 KT before increasing to 10-15 KT with the formation of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon. Winds will then decrease to 5-10 KT overnight. Seas 2-3ft. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible through Sunday. Sun Night-Thu...Overall favorable boating conditions expected with surface ridge axis nearby and only small convective chances Sun night-Tue, esp in the Gulf Stream, and decreasing coverage into mid- week. Expect increasing temperatures with a daily sea breeze - though inland push will be a bit delayed/slower into late next week. SE winds 10-15 kts Sun night-Mon veer SRLY Mon overnight, as well as Tue-Wed nights. Seas of 2-3 ft persist through the period, but could find some 4 ft wave heights sneaking into the local waters Wed night- Thu. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Sunday... Sensitive fire weather conditions continue across the interior. Min RHs drop to around 40 pct in and around southern Lake County and 45-50 pct across the rest of the interior. Light southeasterly winds become easterly and increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon behind the east coast sea breeze. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible along the sea breeze in the afternoon and into the evening hours. Extended Discussion Modified (Sun evening-Fri)...Increasing heat and slightly drier conditions next week will produce min RH values falling to around 35% for much of the area inland from the coast by mid-week. ISOLD lightning storms will be possible Sun evening (well inland) and again on Mon mainly over the interior late day/early evening, with ISOLD-WDLY SCT showers near the coast in the mornings. However, widespread wetting rainfall is not forecast through the next 7 days, so further fuel drying is expected. Temperatures will gradually warm each day, reaching the M90s across the interior by Wed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 68 85 68 85 / 10 30 10 20 MCO 69 88 69 89 / 10 40 10 20 MLB 70 84 70 84 / 20 30 10 20 VRB 69 85 68 86 / 20 20 10 10 LEE 70 88 70 89 / 20 40 30 30 SFB 69 88 68 89 / 10 40 10 20 ORL 69 88 69 89 / 10 40 10 20 FPR 68 85 68 85 / 20 20 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Watson LONG TERM...Sedlock AVIATION...Watson