Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
000
FXUS62 KMLB 211405
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1004 AM EDT THU MAR 21 2024

.DISCUSSION...

...FAIR CONDITIONS TODAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...

TODAY...GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS, ONCE AGAIN, AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES SEAWARD, WITH ANOTHER BUMP UPWARD IN AFTERNOON TEMPS; M-U70S
AT THE COAST AND NEAR 80F TO L80S INTERIOR. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AS WINDS APPROACH 10 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY AND 10-15
MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WARM TODAY,
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. MAINLY DRY, BUT WILL
WATCH FOR SOME SPRINKLES AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER SOUTH ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST AND AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE - THOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW
FOR THIS.

TONIGHT...PREVIOUS...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN US WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN TX, WHILE
ALOFT, THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET BEGINS TO AMPLIFY, DEVELOPING
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GOMEX AND FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE FORCING SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE, CAUSING THE SURFACE LOW TO BROADEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD.
WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS FROM TX TO LA/MS, THE BROAD
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE WARM SECTOR REACHING ECFL LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AHEAD OF SUNRISE. POPS INCREASE EASTWARD QUICKLY, FROM 20-40
PCT AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 40-60 PCT BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND INCREASING MOISTURE (PWATS INCREASING
TO 1.4-1.6" BY MORNING), SHALLOW LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN VIRTUALLY
ZERO CAPE SHOULD PRECLUDE CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING STORMS. LOWS ONLY
FALL BACK INTO THE 60S.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS INTO TONIGHT WITH
ONSHORE E/ESE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS NORTH OF THE CAPE THRU THE DAY AND
10-15 KTS SOUTH. WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THEY BECOME
MORE SERLY AT 15-20 KTS AND EXPECT CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS FOR AT
LEAST THE GULF STREAM AND NEAR SHORE TREASURE COAST MARINE LEG. SEAS
2-3 FT INCREASING TO 3-4 FT BY DAYBREAK FRI MORNING AND BECOMING
CHOPPY. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI MORNING AS MOISTURE SURGES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON...PREVIOUS...ECFL REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DRY AIRMASS TODAY, AS THE ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS SEAWARD AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY. MIN RHS DROP TO 35-40 PCT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR, AND 40-50 PCT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA, INCLUDING THE
COASTAL CORRIDOR. LIGHT NRLY WINDS, VARIABLE AT TIMES TONIGHT,
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, TOPPING OUT AT OR JUST ABOVE 10 MPH
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, WHILE VEERING TO THE ESE-SE IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, THEN SETTLE TO E-ESE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ONCE THE ECSB
DEVELOPS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN OSCEOLA TO SOUTHERN
BREVARD SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH E/ESE
WINDS DEVELOPING 5-10 KTS OVER THE INTERIOR AND 10-15 KTS AT THE
COAST. INCREASING CLOUDINESS INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SE/S WINDS ON FRI WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KTS
INTERIOR AND 15-20 KTS SPACE/TREASURE COASTS, WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. SHOWERY PRECIP INCREASES INTERIOR TERMINALS AFT 08Z FRI
MORNING AND COULD SEE SOME TEMPO/PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA CONDS THRU FRI
AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN LATER PACKAGES. MVFR AT MANY LOCATIONS ON
FRI AND PERHAPS IFR IN PRECIP.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ550-552-555.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/HEIL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.