571
FXUS64 KMOB 122143
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
443 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)

Issued at 443 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

An active weather pattern is set to return as we go into the early
part of the upcoming week with multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms bringing potential for very heavy rainfall and
increased flooding concerns along with a threat of severe weather
to our region. Weak shortwave ridging aloft across our forecast
area this afternoon is expected to shift to our east this evening
as a shortwave trough lifts from eastern portions of Texas into
Louisiana and the Lower Mississippi Valley region. We are already
seeing a rather large area of showers of thunderstorms spreading
across these areas on radar/satellite this afternoon. Rain showers
may arrive into our southeast MS and southwest AL zones late this
afternoon into this evening, but rainfall amounts with this
initial precipitation should be relatively light through this
evening. Convection should ramp up in coverage and intensity
across southeast MS and adjacent portions of southwest AL,
especially after 4 AM Monday as a complex of showers and
thunderstorms arrives into these areas ahead of the lead shortwave
trough. A warm front stretching along coastal portions of MS to
near the AL coast around 4 AM Monday morning should gradually
advance inland through the morning hours, but the big question is
how far north will this boundary get? There is still a lot of
variability in the guidance with regard to the northward extent of
this feature. Confidence is highest that the warm front may
advance into southern portions of our southeast MS counties and
across Mobile/Baldwin AL counties, and then to Pensacola and the
adjacent immediate northwest Florida coast. Storms arriving over
our interior counties overnight could remain elevated in nature
with potential for only heavy rain and possibly some hail. If the
boundary lifts further north through our CWA during the early
morning hours, there could be a wind/tornado threat extending into
our interior areas. If the boundary remains confined closer to
the coast, then the better potential for damaging winds/tornadoes
will be relegated along coastal portions of our CWA. Given the
spread in guidance, the Slight (level 2 of 5) risk of severe
weather was brought north through our entire CWA going into
Monday. Some of the latest CAMs are in agreement with taking this
first round of convection south of the coast by around noon or so
Monday with lull in activity going into Monday afternoon. This
lull looks to be short-lived as the next shortwave trough brings
another convective complex into our forecast area by late Monday
afternoon or Monday evening and continuing through Monday night/
Tuesday morning. Confidence in the severe threat late Monday night
into Tuesday is lower and will be highly dependent on if
instability can reload over our region following the first round
of convection Monday morning. If instability reloads, there could
be severe concerns (wind/tornado/possibly hail) across portions of
our CWA during this time.

The threat of flash flooding will also be on the increase with the
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected to impact
our region Monday morning through Tuesday morning/early Tuesday
afternoon. The latest QPF/rainfall forecast is suggesting potential
for 3 to 6 inches of rain with some pockets in excess of 8 inches
possible over much of our area. A limiting factor could be the dry
antecedent conditions, but given the signal for these heavy
rainfall amounts (some of which could fall in a relatively short
period of time), we have issued a Flood Watch for all of our
forecast area from early Monday morning through early Tuesday
afternoon. The rip current risk will increase to MODERATE on
Monday and then to HIGH by Tuesday. The HIGH rip current risk will
likely persist through much of the week. /21

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 443 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

The upper level shortwave trough north of the forecast area moves
off, with an upper level ridge moving over the Southeast. A drier,
but not appreciably cooler airmass moves over the region, allowing
high temperatures Wednesday to see an uptick from Tuesday (mid to
upper 80s expected). Low temperatures see a downward trend, with
clear skies, light winds, and the dry airmass allowing for good
radiational cooling. Low temperatures mainly in the 60s Tuesday
night drop into the around 60 to mid 60s range (near 70 along the
coast) over most of the forecast area for Wednesday night. /16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 443 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Several rounds of shortwave energy move east through zonal upper
flow over the Southeast the end of the week into the weekend.
Guidance is consistent with energy passing in the Thursday into
Friday night time frame, but there after diverge. For the first half
of the Extended, showers and thunderstorms return by Thursday night,
with moisture return Thursday the limiting the return factor for
PoPs, especially the northeastern half of the forecast area. Will
need to monitor this first round, with guidance advertising a warm
front moving onshore over the Southeast Thursday night through
Friday (but inconsistent in how far inland). For the weekend, have
went with a blended approach for PoPs and temperatures, with the GFS
and GDPS advertising a bit cooler and moister forecast, the ECMWF a
warmer and drier scenario.

Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s see a small dip Friday, with
the highest PoPs this day, but rebound for the weekend. Low
temperatures in the mid to upper 60s over most of the area (low 70s
along the coast) are expected through the period. /16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 443 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

An approaching system will shift light to at times moderate
easterly flow to moderate to at times strong southerly flow for the
beginning of the week. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed, but
conditions are borderline at this time. Light westerly flow returns
for mid week, but another approaching system will bring moderate to
at times strong onshore flow for the end of the week. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      68  82  68  85  65  88  65  86 /  60  90  90  70  10   0   0  30
Pensacola   71  81  72  83  70  86  68  84 /  40  80  90  80  20  10   0  20
Destin      72  82  73  83  73  84  70  84 /  30  70  80  90  30  10  10  20
Evergreen   63  79  67  84  64  86  60  87 /  50  90  90  80  20   0   0  20
Waynesboro  62  79  65  85  62  85  60  85 /  80  90  80  50  10   0   0  30
Camden      61  77  65  84  63  84  59  85 /  60  90  90  80  20   0   0  10
Crestview   63  82  67  84  65  88  61  88 /  30  80  90  90  20  10   0  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
     ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
     FLZ201>206.

MS...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
     MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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