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000
FXUS64 KMOB 180224
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
924 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...

Issued at 919 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The overall forecast is in good shape. Extensive high level
clouds continue to stream across the region and will continue to
do so through the overnight hours. The main forecast challenge for
tonight is the potential for fog development. Hi-res guidance is
showing mixed signals on this. While boundary level moisture is
high (dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s) and supports fog
development, the presence of the high level clouds will likely
preclude fog from becoming too widespread or dense. Will maintain
a mention of patchy fog across the area overnight.

We also slightly increased winds over the marine area for the rest
of the evening based on observations. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Generally VFR conditions are being reported at issuance time. As
the evening progresses, ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR or
IFR. These low clouds will stick through tonight, potentially
lowering further, to LIFR, overnight tonight. Additionally, patchy
fog may also develop during the early morning hours, reducing
visibilities down to MVFR to IFR. Spotty instances of dense fog
cannot be ruled out. Fog should dissipate and ceilings should
begin to lift a little after sunrise, with VFR conditions
returning by the late morning hours. Light southerly winds are
expected throughout the period. /96

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Mostly dry and warm weather continues to prevail through Thursday
for the forecast area. Extensive cloud cover today has kept high
temps in the upper 70s and lower 80s, and conditions may be similar
on Thursday (although maybe not quite as opaque). As such, we may
see temperatures a degree or two warmer on Thursday than today, with
more widespread low to mid 80s possible than today. A general zonal
flow aloft today with a couple weak shortwaves rounding the
periphery of the upper ridge located over the northern Gulf of
Mexico through Thursday night. This should help to maintain the
somewhat increased cloud cover across the area for the remainder of
the near term period. As was the case today, an isolated shower or
storm remains possible over far interior portions of southeastern
Mississippi into far interior southwestern Alabama again on Thursday
afternoon, but for no still no PoPs in the near term forecast. Some
patchy late night fog will again be possible tonight, especially
over the southern half of the forecast area, some locally dense in a
few locations but not expecting widespread dense fog. Lows tonight
should primarily be in the mid 60s across the region. A moderate
risk of rip currents remains across AL/FL beaches through Thursday,
but although wind intensity doesn`t pick up all that much, the
prolonged nature of the onshore flow may require an upgrade to a
HIGH Risk for late week, as some locations are beginning to report
increased rip current activity today. DS/12

SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Deep layer westerly flow is expected to setup through the weekend
as several subtle shortwaves progress across the deep south. At
the surface there will be a stalled boundary somewhere across the
deep south. Deep moisture will be well in place across areas south
of stalled boundary. Several rounds of scattered storms will be
possible mainly Saturday and Sunday as two of the stronger
shortwaves moves across the area. Sunday looks to be the stronger
of the two systems and the furthest south thus expect rain chances
to be the highest on Sunday. After the weekend, more northwesterly
flow will move in once again drying us out through the remainder
of the week as the front pushes offshore. Expect temperatures to
increase through Saturday with highs likely in the mid to upper
80s across the area. The only thing keeping us from the 90s will
likely be the increasing cloud cover. Lows will also float in the
mid 60s before we cool off momentarily behind the boundary.
Patchy fog will also be possible Thursday night and potentially
Friday night. BB/03

MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail through
Saturday with a slightly stronger offshore flow developing on Sunday
before shifting to offshore early next week. At this time, no
especially hazardous conditions are anticipated for small craft
through Monday. DS/12

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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