806
FXUS64 KMOB 291158
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
658 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Mostly MVFR to VFR ceilings today, but some localized areas
dropping to IFR at times this afternoon as isolated to scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms move into the region from the
west. After a break in any pcpn this evening, showers and storms
will again be possible overnight (especially after 30/06z) when
MVFR and localized IFR conditions will again be possible. Surface
winds primarily south to southeasterly through the period, gusty
at times today. DS/12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 442 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 439 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

We will finally be looking at a chance for rain today and tonight,
as as upper level ridging slides eastward and out over the western
Atlantic. At the same time, a couple of upper level shortwaves will
move into the Lower Mississippi Valley region and across our area.
The remnants of a MCS that is moving east-southeast across LA early
this morning will move into our area from the west this afternoon in
association with the first shortwave, but will likely be dissipating
as it does so. Even as it dissipates, still looking at about a 40-60
percent PoP over the western half of our forecast area (especially
for our MS zones) by late this afternoon, where scattered to locally
numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible. There
could be a break in the showers and storms this evening, but
coverages will likely increase again overnight (especially after
midnight) in association with the second shortwave that is expected
to move east across the area when we will again be looking at about
a 40-60 percent PoP across the area.

There are still some discrepancies in the models in both how much
the current MCS remnants hold together as they move into the area
this afternoon, and especially as to the coverage of the possible
overnight into Tuesday activity. MLCAPE values could still increase
up to 500-1000 J/KG, locally 1500 J/KG this afternoon across
southeast Mississippi and far southwest Alabama this afternoon,
which will be sufficient to support thunderstorms. However, low
level and deep layer shear does not appear to be overly impressive
so the overall severe threat remains marginal, and mainly over our
MS zones at this time, per the Marginal Risk from SPC. If the
convective line is able to maintain itself tomorrow afternoon, there
could be a strong or perhaps severe storm tomorrow afternoon capable
of producing damaging wind gusts mainly over our southeast
Mississippi and southwest Alabama counties, but confidence in this
potential remains low at this time. Some guidance indicates a
slightly more unstable airmass over the region late tonight into
early Tuesday morning, and some slightly increased shear as well, so
if storms do redevelop overnight into Tuesday with the passage of
the second shortwave, there could be a minimal severe risk (mainly
strong winds) then as well. Will maintain about a 40 percent Pop
across the area during the day on Tuesday.

Highs both today and Tuesday will mainly in the low 80s (with a few
mid 80s over interior MS zones on Tuesday). Lows tonight will range
from the lower 60s inland to the mid and upper 60s closer to and
along the coast (maybe a few lower 70s on the barrier islands).

Beach Note: Persistent onshore flow will continue to result in
deadly rip currents and increased surf heights along all area
beaches through the early part of the week. The HIGH risk of rip
currents remains in effect through late Tuesday night, and a High
Surf Advisory remains in effect through early this evening as surf
in the 3-5 foot range continues. DS/12

SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 439 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

In the wake of an exiting shortwave trough over the Southeast, an
upper ridge builds north over the eastern Conus. Deep layer
southerly flow becomes organized through the latter half of the
week, bringing Gulf moisture inland. The influx of moisture is well
west of the forecast area mid week, but shifts eastward into the
weekend. Shortwave troughs pass Friday into Friday night, then again
Sunday. The upper ridge maintains enough strength to deflect the
bulk of the energy north of the forecast area, limiting best PoPs to
northwest and northern portions of the forecast area with each
passing trough, along with limiting rain chances to isolated to low
end scattered. Subsidence from the upper ridge will help to keep
temperatures above to well above seasonal norms through the period.
High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s well inland with around 80
near and along the coast are expected. Low temperatures are expected
to range from around 60 to the low 60s north of Highway 84 to mid
60s/upper 60s closer to and along the coast.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 439 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Winds gradually diminishing over the marine area, but a moderate
southeasterly flow will continue through tonight. A lighter onshore
flow will then persist through most of the remainder of the week.
Winds and seas remain at SCEC levels today over most of the marine
area, and offshore over the Gulf zones into tonight, with winds of
15 to 20 knots and with seas still up to around 6 feet at times.
These conditions could be hazardous for small craft. Seas subside
somewhat Tuesday through Tuesday night and remain in the 2 to 3 foot
range through the remainder of the week. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      80  67  84  64  85  65  86  66 /  40  60  40   0  10   0   0   0
Pensacola   78  69  81  65  82  66  82  68 /  20  40  40   0  10   0   0   0
Destin      77  70  79  68  82  68  82  69 /   0  20  40   0  10   0   0   0
Evergreen   83  64  84  60  88  61  90  62 /  30  50  50   0  10   0  10   0
Waynesboro  81  62  84  60  87  62  88  63 /  60  70  30   0  20   0  10  10
Camden      83  63  82  60  86  60  88  63 /  40  60  40   0  10   0  10   0
Crestview   83  63  84  60  89  61  90  62 /  10  30  40   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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