475
FXUS63 KMQT 292025
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
425 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers, some drizzle, and patchy fog
  continues into tonight. Some fog may be locally dense at times
  in high terrain, especially in the Keweenaw.
- Active pattern continues as a series of low pressure systems
  track across the region into early next week. Above normal
  temps/precip are expected including thunderstorm chances.
- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over the west
  half of Upper Michigan on Wednesday, but will depend on the
  preceding precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 424 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

RAP analysis has the weak 1006 mb low pressure system over northwest
WI with the negatively tilted trough over MN. Low level cloud cover
has kept the area fairly insulated today, limiting temperatures to
the 40s most of today. With some southeast downslope flow, a few
spots in the west may reach into the 50s yet this afternoon. With
ample moisture and periods of rain showers, patchy fog has been
observed in the METARs and on cameras, especially in the keweenaw
where upslope flow off Lake Superior has brought 1/4 mile
visibilities to Houghton County Memorial Airport much of today, only
to lift to 1/2 mile periodically. The sfc low is progged to slowly
meander over western Upper MI through this evening into tonight,
bringing an occluded front northeastward with it. This alongside PVA
from the mid level trough will yield some isolated to scattered
showers. With limited instability, only a few rumbles of thunder are
expected.

Showers/drizzle will lift northeast tonight as the midlevel trough
pivots over Lake Superior and the sfc low slowly weakens as it
meanders northeast with it. Areas of fog will continue, especially
in the wake of these showers and in upslope flow over the west,
especially in the Keweenaw. The continuing low clouds and fog will
keep temperatures tonight in the mid 30s to low 40s with warmer
temps in the east half of the UP. Additional accumulations through
tonight are forecast around 0.1" to 0.25".

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 415 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Period of active weather continues with a series of low
pressures systems tracking across the area into early next week.
There will be several chances for rain with these systems with
the best chance of widespread moderate rainfall likely occurring
with the system Thursday into Friday as models indicate a feed
of Gulf moisture ahead of it drawing in PWAT values in excess of
an inch.

Starting Tuesday, a mostly dry frontal passage will be moving across
the area tonight, but there may be some sprinkles/drizzle along and
ahead of the front. Model soundings indicate a potential for a few
hours of post-frontal upslope drizzle for the Copper Country Tuesday
morning associated with moisture wrapping around the surface low
tracking north of the area. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies
with highs ranging from the 50s near Lake Superior and east to the
lower to mid 60s interior west and south central.

A vigorous 500 mb shortwave trough approaches from the Northern
Plains Tuesday evening as it becomes negatively tilted and pivots
across the area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. There`s
very little time for moisture to return ahead of this disturbance
for destabilization and the nocturnal timing further limits thunder
potential. However, there`s very good agreement in convection riding
into the area along the cold front to our west Tuesday afternoon.
These storms appear to grow upscale into an MCS that moves fairly
rapidly across the area late Tue night into early Wed. At this
point, it looks like the best chance for widespread rainfall will be
aligned over the western counties and maybe some of the north
central counties closer to the system`s track and where the better
deep layer qvector convergence and isentropic ascent is fcst. Any
storms that make it into our area should be elevated and shouldn`t
pose a hazard. The window for rainfall is brief (~3 hours) leading
to light rain amounts less than 1/4 inch.

Not great agreement among the models with how much mixing will occur
on the backside of this system on Wednesday afternoon. The GFS
soundings show the potential of mixing to 6-7 kft through a fairly
dry airmass which could drop dew points into the lower 30s (and
perhaps lower) over the interior west with min RHs dipping to 30 pct
or less over the interior west half. Deep mixing off GFS soundings
also suggests westerly gusts could reach near 35 mph. Meanwhile, NAM
soundings depict more clouds with less mixing (only to 3-4 kft)
yielding lesser wind gusts (20 mph or less) and less afternoon
drying of dew points. If the GFS scenario of deeper mixing pans out
the combination of gusty winds and lower RHs could potentially lead
to elevated fire danger, however the recent moderate rainfalls over
the last week could also imply wetter soils/fuels that could limit
the threat.

High pressure builds in Wednesday night resulting in dry conditions,
but then the focus shifts to a low pressure developing over the
Plains on Thursday then tracking across our area Thursday night. As
a result, rain chances increase on Thursday ahead of the warm front
as it lifts north then rain chances end behind Friday`s cold frontal
passage. Ensemble probabilities indicate it`s likely that much of
the area should see QPF totaling a quarter inch or more during this
period with a chance (near 50 pct) of QPF reaching a half inch or
more south central.

Additional generally light rain chances look to continue through
next weekend as weak shortwave impulses continue to move through the
mid-level trough hanging over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A low pressure system currently centered over northwest WI this
afternoon will slowly meander northeast over Upper MI through this
evening, then Lake Superior overnight into Tuesday. During this
period, low clouds and fog will impact flight conditions. As the
occluded front lifts northeast with the sfc low, a round of isolated
to scattered showers will lift with it into the evening hours. SAW
and IWD will see periods of IFR to LIFR cigs and vis with these
showers as well as lingering drizzle/fog, but both sites are expected
to fall to LIFR tonight. CMX is expected to remain in VLIFR through
most of tonight as plenty of moisture and upslope flow keeps fog
around and cigs low. All sites are expected improve to MVFR by
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

East-northeast gales will quickly fall blo gales late this
afternoon/evening as the sfc low now over northwest WI gradually
lifts over central Lake Superior later tonight and winds become less
than 20 kts. East to southeast winds increase to 20-25 kts Tuesday
night, becoming westerly and increasing to 25-30 kts behind a cold
front on Wednesday. There is now less than 20% chance for westerly
gales up to 35 kts could occur on the windward side of the Keweenaw
shoreline. Winds quickly diminish below 20 kts Wednesday night and
stay light until the next low pressure approaches on Thursday
bringing another episode of gusty easterly to northeasterly winds
Thursday night into Friday with maybe a few low-end gale gusts to 35
kts possible over north central and eastern portions of the lake.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for LSZ240-241.

  Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ243>246.

  Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ247-248.

Lake Michigan...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...Jablonski
MARINE...Voss