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000
FXUS63 KOAX 172123
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
423 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms and widespread rain are possible once again
  tonight, with quarter- sized hail and damaging wind gusts
  become possible from midnight through 6 AM along and south of
  I-80.

- Cooler temperatures continue through the weekend, with
  morning lows dropping below freezing in many areas Friday,
  Saturday, and Sunday mornings.

- Another chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday, then
  warming temperatures next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Today and Tonight:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features the mature cyclone that
moved through the area yesterday being followed by the base of
another trough (though not as deep) moving across the northern
Rockies. At the surface, low-level moisture has been scoured out
through Kansas, with northwesterly winds in place that have
been much quieter compared to the strong gradient winds from the
overnight hours. The main concern of the short-term forecast
continues to be overnight rain and storm chances that arrive
from the south and west. The well of moisture down in Oklahoma
is expected to be quickly brought northward into northern
Kansas, with some of that moisture able to ramp up over the
surface boundary and root it in the 850 to 700 mb range. Above
that moisture, will be a swath of steep lapse rates, that moves
through southeast Nebraska from midnight through 6 AM and the
incoming forcing will allow an arm of storms to develop. The
favorable environment will quickly erode at and north of I-80,
with that serving as the northern bound for any strong storms.
Though low-level hodographs have plenty of curvature, no storms
are expected to be surface-based, with only straight line speed
shear able to be realized. That leaves potential hazards to
being hail primarily and a few gusts to 60 mph.

Thursday and Beyond:

For Thursday afternoon onward, a cooler regime settles in for the
late week and weekend as the main axis of cooler 850 mb temperatures
swings through the Central Plains. With the recent warm
temperatures, a considerable green up has occurred and with
that returns frost/freeze susceptibility. Areas of northeast
Nebraska into Iowa are expected to fall below freezing with
areas of southeast Nebraska nearing it Friday, Saturday and
Sunday mornings. We`ll likely be issuing advisories for at least
portions of the area before we warm back up for the upcoming
work week. Most rainfall activity should miss the area either to
the north or the south with the next chances for rain coming to
the area Monday/Tuesday. Highs return to the 70s Tuesday
through the end of the week, making a comfortable week ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions are in place at all three terminals, with
northwesterly winds gusting as strong as 25 kts expected to drop
the gusts by 19 or 20z in favor of much lighter winds at 10 kts
or less. Overnight, light rain is expected to approach from the
west after 05z, while an arm of showers and storms develops
and moves northward from far southeast Nebraska. KOFK most
likely will not see any lightning at all while KOMA and KLNK
have a 2 hour period of lightning chances before it transitions
to all rainfall. During the rain/storms, we`ll go from VFR to
MVFR ceilings and see increasing winds gusting to 20-25 kts.
MVFR conditions should stick around after storms exit, but look
like they`ll clear by 18z tomorrow.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen