Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 271132
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
632 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Cold front has reached the Plateau early this morning but hasn`t
cleared our forecast area just yet, which should occur in the
next couple hours. A cooler and much drier airmass continues to
filter into the midstate behind the front with temperatures down
into the 40s and dewpoints falling into the 30s. Lows are
expected to reach the upper 30s to low 40s areawide by sunrise.
Frost appears unlikely as winds will remain around 5 mph or
higher, but a few of our colder spots could see some patchy
frost.

Today into tomorrow looks quite pleasant albeit on the cool side
with highs only reaching the upper 50s to low 60s. Tonight should
be the coldest night for the next week as a 1024mb surface high
settles over the western half of the state, with lows dropping
into the low to mid 30s. With clear skies, light winds, and
dewpoints below freezing expected, widespread frost should
develop tonight and a frost advisory will likely be needed for
most or all of the area. A few of our typically colder locations
could even touch the freezing mark, but it should only be
briefly. Another round of frost is also likely over our eastern
half Thursday night as the surface high shifts eastward into the
Appalachians. Our average first freeze ranges from March 31 to
April 16 across Middle Tennessee, so we likely aren`t done with
frost and freezes even after tonight and Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

A significant warmup is anticipated over the weekend into early
next week as a large H5 ridge builds northward from the Gulf of
Mexico into the Great Lakes. Highs will warm back into the
60s/70s on Friday, 70s on Saturday, and 70s/80s on Sunday and
Monday. Our next rain chances arrive late Sunday and especially
on Monday into Tuesday as a large positive-tilt trough ejects out
of the southwest CONUS into the Midwest and Southeast. 00Z
guidance continues to be all over the place regarding the
evolution of the surface and upper level features of this system,
but even so we will have to keep an eye on it as there appears to
be enough instability and shear present for a svr wx threat.
Regardless, fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely
Monday into Tuesday with a couple inches of rainfall possible. In
the wake of this system, a return to dry and cooler conditions is
likely for the rest of next week as deep northwest flow develops
aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions at all sites today as high pressure moves into the
area. A few low clouds may pass over CKV this morning, but the
remainder of the day should be mostly clear at all sites with
light winds out of the NNW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      60  37  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    58  34  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     60  34  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       60  35  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     58  35  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      58  34  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   60  35  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   60  35  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        58  35  63  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Whitehead


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