748
FXUS64 KOHX 280512
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Warm and breezy evening across the midstate with current
temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. LLJ will remain around 25-30
knots through the night, so temps will not drop much overnight
with lows around 60 on the Plateau and low to mid 60s elsewhere.
No precip is anticipated until Monday. Updated grids/zones based
on latest obs but no significant changes made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday Night)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Warm and somewhat humid for late April across the mid state this
morning. The patchy shower activity to our west has all but ended.
Temperatures are well into the 60s with southerly winds of 10-20
mph. Still looking at lower 80s for highs with a few peaks of
sunshine for this afternoon.

Through Sunday night, a surface high will remain off of the Atlantic
coast. Meanwhile a low pressure system over the central Plains will
be tracking northeastward. The gradient between the 2 features will
continue to enhance our southerly flow with moderate winds
being sustained.

The surface low`s associated frontal boundary will experience a
weakening trend as it approaches our area on Monday. Lifting however
will become enhanced with a post frontal shortwave into Tuesday. As
a result, showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday and into
Tuesday. Instabilities will max out on Monday afternoon but 850 mb
speeds will remain below 30kts and organization is on the weak side.
So far, just a general risk is indicated. Otherwise, rainfall
amounts look like a half inch to three quarters of an inch.

For the near term temps, values look rather steady and quite mild
for this time of year. Lows 60 to 65 and highs 80 to 85.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

In the extended forecast, again, showers and thunderstorms will
still be around on Tuesday with that shortwave. Pattern will then
morph to a more active southwesterly regime. Model uncertainties
exist in terms of a break for mid week prior to the commencement of
a more active pattern. It does look like a frontal system will
finally arrive toward the weekend. This boundary holds a little more
promise for a marginal risk perhaps. However, mid level jet resides
to our north again. Moreover, though the surface low strengthens
with ample ul support, it takes a far northerly track. No day 6-7
risk from spc thus far. Otherwise, our 7 day precip totals look like
1-2 inches.

For the extended temps, mild conditions will continue. Behind the
weekend system though, a little cooler but still above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Southerly winds up to 11
knots overnight increasing after 13z to 10 to 16 knots gusting up
to 24 knots. Breezy winds diminish after 00z. Periods of high
level clouds with mid-level clouds developing tomorrow morning
into the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  64  82  63 /   0   0  40  80
Clarksville    84  64  80  61 /   0  10  70  80
Crossville     78  58  78  58 /   0   0  10  70
Columbia       84  64  82  62 /   0   0  40  80
Cookeville     80  62  80  60 /   0   0  10  80
Jamestown      80  60  80  59 /   0   0  10  80
Lawrenceburg   82  63  82  62 /   0   0  30  80
Murfreesboro   84  64  84  62 /   0   0  30  80
Waverly        84  66  80  61 /   0  10  70  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Shamburger
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Mueller