732
FXUS64 KOUN 060927
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
427 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Added a small area of dense fog across our far southeast CWA
within an already existing area of fog extending generally east of
I-35. Visibility`s reduced between 1/2 to 1/4 of a mile in the
dense fog area. Can`t rule out a potential advisory for dense fog
by mid-morning but will hold off for now and continue monitoring
the trend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Storms will be out of our area before sunrise Tuesday morning, with
mostly sunny skies expected through the day with highs in the low
80s. Models show another shortwave moving into the plains on
Wednesday as moisture attempts to move back northward into our
southeast counties. As of now the flow is expected to veer across
much of our area through the day Wednesday, which should push the
better moisture eastward and confine any thunderstorm chances to our
eastern/southeastern counties. Instability and shear will support
severe weather with these storms, with large hail and damaging
wind gusts the main threat.

After Wednesday the synoptic pattern appears to transition to one
much less favorable for severe weather, with high pressure to our
north confining the deeper moisture well to our south into the
weekend. This should finally give our area a bit of a break,
although we will not completely dry out as rain chances (non-severe)
return to the area Saturday into Sunday.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

IFR-MVFR conditions expected overnight through at least 14-16Z
most terminals. Dense fog/LIFR appears most likely around KPNC and
KSWO north of developing warm front. Moisture return will keep at
least MVFR going most if not all day ahead of dryline. Will
introduce +TSRA to northern and central Oklahoma terminals, with
TEMPO at KPNC/KSWO where coverage is expected to be greater after
00Z. Gusty south winds will veer to southwest/west toward end of
forecast behind dryline/Pac-front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  54  81  64 /  40  50   0   0
Hobart OK         85  51  83  57 /  30  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  84  55  84  66 /  20  20   0   0
Gage OK           86  49  85  51 /  20  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     80  51  81  58 /  60  80   0  10
Durant OK         82  67  85  68 /  20  30   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...11