Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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376 FXUS64 KOUN 302355 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 655 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Daytime heating this afternoon will support the chance for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along a diffuse dryline as convective inhibition weakens across western Oklahoma. Effective bulk shear will be modest (~35 knots) for supercells. The expected hazards will be damaging wind gusts and hail; however, if any supercell can sustain themselves into the evening, there will be a short window of opportunity for a low tornado threat as the low- level jet strengthens with an attendant increase in low-level storm relative helicity. Thunderstorms should weaken with the loss of daytime heating as convective inhibition strengthens. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop across Kansas in association with a cold front, which will likely move southward into north central Oklahoma tonight. Warm air advection associated with a low-level jet may result in continued development in this zone. Given the heavy rainfall they experienced with the last event, we opted to issue a Flood Watch for north central Oklahoma. For tomorrow, the uncertainty is on how far southwest the outflow boundary from the morning thunderstorms will progress. This boundary may serve as a focus for redevelopment tomorrow afternoon. Another scenario is that convection may continue to move to the southwest through the day and never fully dissipate. In addition, the dryline should retreat farther to the west, into the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Both of these boundaries (and any associated intersection) will result in a chance for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Tomorrow night, there is evidence that any ongoing thunderstorms may consolidate into one or two complexes that will move across the area. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 There remains uncertainty on where the cold front will be Thursday as it will depend on what happens Wednesday night. The cold front will likely get another southward push on Thursday with another chance of showers and thunderstorms. The aforementioned cold front will likely lift back to the north on Friday with persistent southwest flow into the upcoming weekend. As a result, there will be continued periods of showers and thunderstorms. Flooding will likely become a hazard in some locations given the recent rainfall across the area. Mahale && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 TSRA expected to have impacts mainly at KPNC and KSWO overnight into tomorrow morning (closer to incoming from across southern Kansas). Impacts at KCSM, KLAW, and KSPS is possible for the first few hours of forecast before dissipating. Frontal boundary expected to progress down toward central Oklahoma toward 12Z, possibly reinforced by TSRA outflow, but retreat during the day tomorrow. PROB30 will be included central Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon near retreating front. TSRA will also be possible across western Oklahoma by end of forecast, but impacts may occur just beyond this forecast valid time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 63 79 64 78 / 30 50 40 80 Hobart OK 62 82 61 81 / 20 40 50 40 Wichita Falls TX 65 82 64 83 / 50 30 60 50 Gage OK 58 87 58 79 / 20 40 40 20 Ponca City OK 61 80 65 77 / 80 50 50 90 Durant OK 65 83 65 79 / 20 30 60 80 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ007-008-012-013. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...11