Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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079 FXUS64 KOUN 072025 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 325 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 318 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Much quieter conditions are in place today with mostly sunny skies and drier westerly/southwesterly surface winds across much of the area. Winds will become more southerly later this afternoon into tonight as a surface low develops across southeast Colorado into the panhandles. This will allow moisture to attempt to return northward into the area overnight but veering surface winds will only allow it to make it into central and eastern portions of the area before a cold front begins to sweep through Wednesday morning. Storm chances in our area appear to be a fairly low probability as the veered flow lends to weak convergence along the boundary. However, several of the CAMs depict at least scattered convection developing as early as 10-12z east of I-35, and with plenty of moisture and instability in place cannot rule out a strong to severe storm capable of producing large hail. Much more widespread and significant severe weather appears likely tomorrow afternoon along and ahead of the front, but by this time the front will have cleared all but our far southeast counties. For now we have maintained a low probability (~20%) for storm development in these areas tomorrow afternoon (mainly Bryan/Atoka counties), with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats. The rest of our area can expect dry conditions with a northerly breeze behind the boundary. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 318 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 High pressure builds into the area behind the cold front, with drier and mild conditions expected Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures will reach into the 70s to low 80s for highs each day, about average for this time of year. By later Saturday into Sunday, a closed low across the intermountain west will begin to move eastward, weakening as it approaches our area. At least modest moisture return is expected ahead of this feature with low (20-30%) shower and thunderstorm chances entering our western counties early Sunday morning, moving across the rest of the area Sunday into Sunday night. Rainfall amounts appear fairly light and weak instability will temper chances for severe weather, so overall impact to the area should be fairly low. Uncertainty increases heading into the early to middle portion of next week regarding how quickly rain chances will exit, but the overall synoptic pattern appears fairly unfavorable for organized severe weather as both instability wind shear remain weak. Ware && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1101 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 VFR conditions are expected until 081800. Winds will generally range from northwest to southwest with gusts in western Oklahoma outside of the nighttime hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 63 80 54 76 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 57 83 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 66 84 57 78 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 51 80 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 56 78 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 67 89 60 81 / 0 20 10 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...09