National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KOUN 220856
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
356 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Highlights:
 * Very localized ground fog this morning
 * Breezy this afternoon
 * Elevated fire weather northwest this afternoon

The surface ridge is moving east out of the area this morning,
Southerly low-level flow has returned to all but southeast
Oklahoma early this morning, but there are some areas where winds
are still light. Ardmore and Lawton weather stations are reporting
reduced visibilities as of 08Z, although no widespread areas of
fog are apparent on satellite or Lawton area traffic cameras, so
these may be cases of localized ground fog. Will watch trends, but
do not anticipate anything more than localized ground for at the
moment. Winds will increase by about 14-15Z and become breezy
today (especially in the northwest) as the pressure gradient
tightens in response to a surface low developing in southeast
Colorado. These winds and continued drought in parts of northwest
Oklahoma will elevate fire weather conditions this afternoon,
although forecast humidity remains above 20 percent, so conditions
should not become critical.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Highlights:
 * Transition to a more active/stormy pattern mid to late week.
 * Some severe potential Tuesday and Wednesday. Higher severe
   potential later this week.
 * Near-critical Fire Weather conditions west on Friday and
   perhaps Saturday.

A mid-level trough moving from the northern Plains toward the
Great Lakes tomorrow help nudge a cold front down the central
Plains and likely into Oklahoma on Tuesday. Although there still
is some question about the cap strength initially, the GFS and a
number of CAMs show convection developing in the southwest near
the front by 00Z. Instability would be sufficient for the
potential of isolated severe storms during the late afternoon and
early evening. As the front stalls out, isentropic lift above the
front will develop increasing storm chances somewhat Tuesday
night into Wednesday, although these storms would be elevated
with lower severe weather potential Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. But as the front finally lifts north, instability will
increase again across the area bringing at least the potential for
isolated severe storms back late Wednesday afternoon and into the
nighttime hours.

Meanwhile, a larger scale mid-level trough develops over the
Western United States on Thursday and brings moving toward the
Plains. The models are becoming more consistent with the timing of
this trough affecting the area with the trough axis moving over
the High Plains overnight Thursday night. With this current
forecast timing, thunderstorm potential increases again late
Thursday afternoon and evening with storms spreading east
overnight and into Friday. There will be a respite in storm
chances behind this wave, but another large-scale mid-level trough
develops in the West Friday/Friday night and moves towards the
area either Saturday (per the ECMWF) or Saturday night/Sunday (per
the GFS) increasing storm chances once again.

With these systems moving through, a dryline is expected to move
into western Oklahoma on Friday, and perhaps again on Saturday.
This will bring very low dewpoints and humidity into western
Oklahoma and western north Texas and create elevated to near-
critical fire weather conditions, especially again in the areas of
northwest Oklahoma that have not received significant rainfall
recently.



&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions this TAF period. Light winds will continue to
shift towards the south. Winds will increase early Monday with
strong/gusty winds expected throughout the day as pressure
gradient strengthens. The strongest winds will be in parts of
northern and western OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  54  81  57 /   0   0  10  30
Hobart OK         72  52  83  56 /   0   0  10  30
Wichita Falls TX  71  53  83  60 /   0   0  20  30
Gage OK           78  54  79  49 /   0   0   0  20
Ponca City OK     73  53  79  51 /   0   0  10  20
Durant OK         69  52  78  61 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25