Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 190845 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
345 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Dampening H50 short wave will dampen as it moves up the OH River
Valley today into this evening. Confidence on precise location of
the associated surface frontal position remains a bit in question
when it comes to our area. 000z Operational GFS and 06z NAM are
farthest north with the front up of near or just north
HOP/Mayfield by 21Z (4 PM CDT), but other models, including the
EC/Canadian/GEFS/RAP and HRRR keep the sfc boundary in northern TN
until the sfc low moves farther east.

Going closer to the consensus, have opted to keep the front and
thus the more unstable air along/south of the KY/TN border. Still,
lapse rates aloft and the shallowness of the cooler air may
produce a few stronger thunderstorms. High 0-3 km helicity values
would suggest some storm updrafts could rotate, but this is not
junxa-positioned with the much better surface based instabilities
farther south into TN and the northern gulf states.

Thus...while isolated severe potential cannot be ruled out from
the MO bootheel east through in southern KY today, esp from near
midday into the afternoon hours, the higher severe potential
should stay a bit farther south into TN/MS/AL/GA. Looks like the
hazard potentials near our area would come from large hail and if
stronger wind gusts could break through any low lvl temp
inversion. Never rule out an isolated tornado along and just north
of the sfc front tho.

Rest of the short term looks fairly benign, esp once secondary mid
level low moves east of the region Tuesday afternoon. Clouds and
blustery north to northwest winds should hold temps close to
morning lows all day Tue, with most locations staying in the 40s.
Wednesday should offer a bit milder day with the return of some
sunshine, but still will likely stay well below seasonal norms,
which are now up to near 60 in the PAH area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Weak surface high pressure will dominate the weather at the start of
the extended period. This high shifts eastward throughout the day on
Thursday and a southeasterly flow sets up by Thursday night. Models
are still not in agreement on whether or not precipitation will
develop during the evening and overnight hours on Thursday in
association with warm air advection. The GFS continues to be the
most robust with breaking out rain during the Thursday night time
frame due to better moisture return.

On Friday, scattered showers look promising as a warm front develops
and lifts north across the area. Again, the depiction of where the
rain will develop is still not consistent between models and model
runs right now. A lot will depend on the progression of the
associated surface low that will be getting organized well to our
west. This low races eastward during the day on Friday and by 12Z
Saturday, the sfc low ends up in either southern Iowa or northern
Missouri. The GFS ensemble mean is much slower with that
progression. Location of best POPs for Friday will depend a lot on
where that warm front sets up and how fast it lifts north.
Therefore, will keep POPs in the chance category. However, on Friday
night, the better chances should be across the northeastern half of
the area as the front lifts even further northward.

The weather for the first part of the weekend will be tied to the
speed and track of the aforementioned surface low. A cold front will
be plowing through the area during the day on Saturday/Saturday
night. Therefore, we will taper POPs from west to east throughout
the day/evening. Really looks like Sunday should be dry in the wake
of this system but it sure doesn`t take long before another system
wants to invade the area even as early as Sunday night and/or


Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

VFR cigs/vsbys expected at KCGI/KPAH overnight, with drops to
MVFR cigs/vsbys possible with showers between 06z-12z. MVFR cigs
expected after 12z, with MVFR vsbys possible with showers and
storms after 17z. Winds will be northeast around 5 kts overnight,
becoming east around 10 kts after 12z, then north after 17z.

At KEVV/KOWB, VFR cigs expected overnight into Monday morning,
with MVFR fog possible between 08z- 13z. MVFR cigs/vsbys possible
with showers after 18z. Winds will be calm overnight, becoming
east around 10 kts after 12z, then northeast by 00z.




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